In classical mechanics, the ‘natural’ state of a body is to be at rest or, if in motion, to continue in a straight line at constant speed indefinitely. This is Newton’s 1st Law. Any deviation from this state is to be attributed to the action of a force and, for Newton, all forces were external since Newton knew nothing of  chemical bonding or nuclear reactions.
Similarly, since Newton did not have at his disposal the notion of the field  (which was only invented by Faraday in the 19th century), he assumed that all forces were to be attributed to the action of other bodies : there were contact forces (such as those due to collisions) or distant forces such as those due to gravitational attraction. And for anything to happen at all one needed at least two bodies and the situation was supposed to be symmetric : if A affects B, then B affects A to exactly the same extent ─ Newton’s 3rd Law.
The important point here is that, in the Newtonian scheme, no body is an island but always “part of the main” (to paraphrase Donne) and this ‘main’, because attraction was universal and instantaneous, turns out to be the entire universe. In the Newtonian schema, every atom is enmeshed in a complex net of forces stretching out in every direction and from which there is no hope of escape (Note 1)

Need for an ‘Inertial Frame’  

So, could, in the Newtonian scheme, an entirely isolated body be said to have any properties at all apart from occupying a certain position in space? As Bishop Berkeley observed at the time (Note 2), to speak of a completely isolated body being in ‘motion’ or ‘having a velocity’ is meaningless : we require at least one other body with which we can compare the first body’s changes of position over time. And, in like manner, the ‘second’ body  requires the first.
But a ‘two-body system’ where each body is moving relative to the other is not much of an advance on a single body if we want to work out the successive positions of either, or both, of these bodies, especially if they are circling round each other. What is required is a rigid framework which  encloses our ‘test’ body and which does not itself move around appreciably while the ‘test’ body is free to move inside it. Hence the idea of an ‘inertial frame’  : an absolutely  indispensable concept without which physics would never have developed very far.

Celestial and Terrestrial Inertial Frames  

On the astronomical scale, the required framework was supposed to be provided by the ‘fixed stars’ ─ even though it was already known by Newton’s time that the stars were not completely fixed in their positions relative to each other. But compared to the Earth the stars provided a good enough backdrop.
What of terrestrial frames? Galileo’s ‘inertial frame’ was the windowless  cabin of a ship conceived to be either at rest or moving at a constant speed on a calm sea (presumably rowed by galley-slaves). Today, we have much better ‘inertial frames’, cars, trains, ocean liners, aircraft, spaceships and so on ─ indeed it is remarkable that Galileo and his contemporaries were able to conceive of the idea of an ‘inertial frame’ at all since methods of transport at the time were so jerky.
Of course, not all physical objects are situated inside recognizable ‘inertial frames’, but, if need be, we simply imagine a frame, usually either the classic Cartesian box frame or a spherical ‘frame’ like that of an idealized Earth (without flattening at the poles). If we take one corner of the box as the fixed origin, or the centre of the Earth, we can fix the position of any small body relative to the ‘origin’ using at most three ‘specifications’, i.e. co-ordinates.
Galileo was not particularly interested in inertial frames as such and only introduced the windowless cabin ‘thought experiment’ to meet the standard objection to the heliocentric theory, “If the Earth is moving round the Sun, why do we not register this movement?”  Galileo replied, in effect, that neither do we necessarily register motion here on Earth provided this motion is more or less constant and in a straight line. He challenges a traveller, shut up in the windowless cabin of a ship, to decide whether the ship is at the dock or travelling at constant speed over a calm sea. Galileo argues that no experiment undertaken inside the cabin, would enable the voyager to come to a final decision on the matter. We ourselves know how difficult it sometimes is, when in a train for example, to decide without looking out of the window whether we are in motion (relative to the platform) or are still at the station.
This question of distinguishing between inertial frames has had enormous importance in the history of physics since it ultimately gave rise to Einstein’s Theory of Special Relativity. 19th century physicists, although accepting that no mechanical experiment would be able to distinguish between Galileo’s two situations, reasoned that there ought nonetheless to be a foolproof method of distinguishing between rest and constant straight-line motion by way of optical experiments. The Michelsen-Morley experiment was designed to detect the (very nearly) constant straight-line motion of the Earth through the all-pervading ether. The famous null result caused a crisis in theoretical physics which was only resolved by Einstein. He made it an axiom (assumption) of his theory that no experiment that ever would or could distinguish, from the inside, between different inertial frames. (More precisely, what Einstein assumed  was that “the laws of physics take the same form in all inertial frames”. If identical bodies in similar physical conditions were observed to behave differently in different inertial frames, then this would show either that Einstein’s assumption was wrong or that there were no universally valid ‘laws of physics’.

Absolute Motion and Absolute Rest? 

Newton himself was reluctant to accept what Galileo’s Principle of Relativity implied : namely that there was no such thing as ‘absolute’ motion, or for that matter ‘absolute’ rest, only motion or rest relative to some agreed body or point in space. Instinctively  Newton felt that there ought to be some way of distinguishing between ‘absolute’ and ‘relative’ motion, and consequently between constant straight line motion and rest. But he conceded that, practically speaking, he could not see how this could be achieved ─ “the parts of space cannot be seen or distinguished from one another by our senses, therefore in their stead we use sensible measures of them” (Principia Motte’s translation p. 8).
Newton did, however, point out that we can make an ‘absolute’ distinction when speaking of rotational movement — “There is only one real circular motion of any one revolving body, corresponding to only one power of endeavouring to recede from its axis of motion” (Newton, Principia p. 11) As evidence for this Newton used the ‘bucket and rope’ experiment.
If a bucket of water is suspended on the end of a twisted rope and we leave the rope to untwist, the water climbs up the sides of the bucket which it would not otherwise do. This was, to Newton, an example of ‘absolute rotational movement’ within an ‘absolute’ frame ultimately provided by the fixed stars. In this case, the situation was not symmetrical : one could, by observing the torsion of the rope, conclude that it was the bucket, and not the stars, that was rotating (Note 4).
In much the same manner, one might well expect there to be some inertial frame that was ‘truly at rest’ and against which the motions of all other inertial frames could be judged.

Abandon of the Principle of Relativity in UET

 What is the comparable situation in Ultimate Event Theory? After agonising over this question and related issues for the best part of a year, I have finally taken the plunge and decided to discard one of the most firmly established and fruitful principles in the whole of physical science. So there we are : the Rubicon is crossed.
In UET, the equivalents (sic) of inertial frames are not generally equivalent. In principle at least,  it should be  possible to distinguish between a ‘truly stationary’ event-chain and a ‘non-stationary’ one, as also between event-chains which have different constant displacement rates. Indeed, I aim to propose an axiom which in effect says just this. At present, contemporary experimental methods most likely do not allow one to make such fine distinctions, but this situation may change during this century, and indeed I predict that it will.
Dispensing with the Principle of Special Relativity does not mean we have to abandon all the formulae and predictions based upon it. There exists now a substantial body of evidence that ‘verify’ the formulae Einstein originally deduced on the basis of his particular assumptions, and in the last resort this evidence is the justification of the formulae, not the other way round. It is, for example, a matter of empirical fact that it is  not possible to accelerate a body beyond a certain well-defined limit, and that the closer one gets to this limit, the more difficult it is to accelerate the body.

Assumption of Continued Existence  

In ‘classical’ mechanics and physics generally, it is taken for granted that, once in existence, a ‘solid body’ carries on existing more or less in the same shape and form. Even rocks and mountains get worn down in the end, of course, but their constituent ‘bodies’, namely their atoms, last far longer. For Newton and his contemporaries atoms were indestructible, just as they were for the originators of the atomic theory, Democritus and Epicurus. Although twentieth-century discoveries have overturned this rash assumption ─ most elementary particles are very short-lived indeed ─ there remain plenty of small ‘bodies’ all around and inside us, that we are assured have been in existence for millions, sometimes even billions, of years. The idea that “once in existence an object tends to carry on existing indefinitely” is so deeply ingrained in Western thought that it has  rarely been seriously questioned.
In Western thought but not Eastern. Two of the principal Indian and Chinese systems, Buddhism and Taoism, on the contrary emphasize the transience and ephemerality of all physical (and mental) phenomena. According to Buddhism nothing lasts for more than an instant and even solid objects such as rocks and corpuscles are flickering in and out of existence even as we look at them. It is significant that the ancient Chinese equivalent of the (under normal conditions)  unchanging elements in the Periodic Table are the shifting configurations of the Y Ching, the Book of Changes.
Now, in UET the ‘natural’ state is for every ultimate event to appear and disappear for ever. If an ultimate event reappears and keeps on doing so, thus inaugurating an event-chain, this can only be due to a ‘force’ ─ I have thought of calling it ‘existence-force’. Most ultimate events never become subject to ‘existence force’ ─ never acquire ‘existence energy’ if you like ─  but, once they do acquire this capacity to repeat, they generally retain it for a considerable length of  time. Once an event-chain is established, then, no extra force, inner or outer, is required for it to ‘keep on existing’ : on the contrary effort is required to terminate an event-chain, i.e. to stop the ultimate event or event-cluster repeating. And this is a very important fact.

Why is acceleration so difficult?

Why is it so difficult to make a particular object ‘go faster’? And why, the faster an object is already ‘moving’, is it all the more difficult to make it go faster still?
This state of affairs might appear ‘obvious’, but I do not  believe that it is. Take a bath with a little water in it. Does it become more difficult to add one more teaspoonful as the bath fills up? No, it does not. And even when the bath is full, you can still merrily carry on adding water, though in this case some of the water will spill onto the floor. On the other hand, it is extremely difficult to get a lot of personal objects to fit into a travelling case : we have to fold clothes carefully so that they lie flat, arrange solid objects so they fit together neatly and so on.
What is the difference between the two sets of examples ─  the bath and the travelling case or trunk? It is, of course, simply a matter of the available space. In the case of an ‘open’ container, such as a bath, there is more or less unlimited space; in the case of a trunk, the available space is seriously limited.
Now apply this to ultimate events (which are the equivalent of ‘elementary particles’ in UET). Taking as our starting point the spot where an event occurs at a particular ksana, there is seemingly a built in limitation to how far away the next event in the event-chain can occur. If there is to be only one  ‘next event’, it can only occur in a single spatial direction relative to its predecessor ─ as opposed to all three directions at once. And there is an upper limit to the possible ‘lateral distance’ between successive events if  they are members of an event-chain. This is so because the ‘range’ of the causal connection is finite ─ everything in UET except the Event Locality itself is finite. There may conceivably be relations of some sort between two events that are separated by more than c emplacements at successive ksanas, but, in UET as in the theory of Special Relativity, such relations cannot be causal, at any rate as the term is normally understood (Note 5).
In UET everything is static though one static set-up is constantly being replaced by another. ‘Motion’ in UET simply means the replacement of one ultimate event or event-cluster by another event or event-cluster. Instead of particles in perpetual motion, we must think rather in terms of evanescent point-like ultimate events encased in ‘event containers’. In the proposed schema for UET, each ultimate event has its own particular ‘event-capsule’ of variable dimensions. If we label the  boundary positions in any one spatial direction 0 and c , we can say that there are c* = (c – 1) possible emplacements for ultimate events inside a single capsule in a single direction. (This excludes the two boundary positions.) But only one of these positions or ‘event-pits’ can be occupied at a single ksana (moment).

  • …………………….………………..●

0   ←                        c*                   → c

Now, there is seemingly, also a limit on how far the very next  ultimate event in  an event-chain can be displaced in a single direction. This is a matter of experience and observation though it would be difficult to imagine a ‘world’ in which there was not a limit of some sort. If there was no such limit, something that I do here, wherever ‘here’ is, could have immediate consequences at some arbitrarily distant spot in the universe. The speed of the transmission of causality would be ‘infinite’. This is scarcely conceivable and, in any case, for the purposes of UET, one can  simply rule out any such possibility by invoking the ‘Anti-Infinity Postulate’. Eddington,  rightly in my view, argued that one could decide for strictly a priori reasons that there must be a ‘speed limit’ for the transmission of energy (or information) in any universe, though one could not for a priori reasons decide exactly what this limit must be.
There is, then, a permanent constraint on all event-chains without exception : successive ultimate events cannot be more than c* positions apart in any one direction. And if we have two event-chains where the distance between successive events of each of the two chains regularly increases by, say, d positions (where d < c*) at every ksana, there is a further constraint on this dual system, namely that the greatest possible subsequent increase is (c* – d) emplacements. (Note that I am speaking of event positions or emplacements not distances in the ‘metric’ sense.)
In effect, looming over and above each individual ‘event-capsule’ with its ultimate event, there is a sort of ghostly potential event-container which dictates how far the next ultimate event of an event-chain can be relative to its previous position. If we label the boundary positions of this ‘macroscopic’ event-container 0 and c , we can say that this creature has the  capacity to accommodate c* ultimate events in any one spatial direction but no more. It is, in effect, a scaled-up version of an individual event-capsule since, in the case of an individual event-capsule, there are exactly the same number of possible emplacements for an ultimate event ─ but only one position can be occupied at a time. This parallelism turns out to be extremely significant in UET.
In matter-based physics, we say that a ‘body’ cannot go any faster than c metres per second. The equivalent statement in UET would be : “It is not possible to fit more than c* ultimate events into a causal event container. Once this container is ‘full’, there is no room for any more events and that is that. This question of available space, and the increasing difficulty of cramming events into it, is the crucial issue in UET from which all sorts of  consequences follow. As this available space becomes curtailed, the system as a whole becomes subject to increasing pressure and strongly resists any further constriction. To speak in mathematical terms, any supposed ‘event-packing function’  ─ the equivalent of the acceleration function ─ would not be linear, would start off almost as a straight line but would rise precipitously as v gets nearer and  nearer the maximum possible value c* = (c – 1).

The Inertial Ratchet 

This picture of an event-container and ultimate events inside it is, of course, not quite right. If we are considering an event-chain where each constituent event is ‘laterally displaced’ at each successive ksana, all the intermediate possible emplacements ─ spots where ultimate events could in principle have occurred ─ are not actually occupied. But it is as if they were. There is no way of going back to the previous state of affairs ─ except by applying a completely new force. Galileo’s notion of inertia should not be interpreted negatively, i.e. as showing our personal incapacity to distinguish ‘inertial frames’, but realistically as a sort of ‘valve’ or  ‘space-time ratchet’ which stops an event-chain reverting to its previous occurrence pattern. Not only can the ‘moving finger’ of Omar Khayyam not be lured back to “cancel half a line” but it must inexorably keep on writing at the same rate. If, then, for some reason, an event-chain A suddenly increases its lateral distance from event-chain B by d emplacements at every ksana, it must seemingly keep increasing its distance by this precise amount of d event-emplacements indefinitely.
This property of maintaining a constant ‘speed’ without extra effort is an astonishing and extremely important fact about physical reality which has been glossed over because of the exclusive concentration on the technicalities of how one might  actually be able to distinguish between one ‘inertial frame’ and another. Galileo, foreshadowed by the great medieval thinker Oresme, realized that it is not the distance between two bodies (event-clusters) that is important, but the increase in the distance. Why should this be? Because, as far as we know, there is no built in restriction on how far two event-chains can be apart. But the doctrine of the equivalence of all inertial frames means that conditions within any one of the inertial frames remain exactly the same whether or not the two frames (repeating event-clusters) are right alongside each other or are moving apart at a fantastic speed provided this speed is constant ksana by ksana (and less than the upper limit).
But can one really believe this? One can ─ or I can ─ understand only too well why people (including Newton) were disinclined to accept Galileo’s Principle of Relativity and subsequently at first even more disinclined to accept Einstein’s more extended version. Only repeated experiments of increasing precision made some such acceptance mandatory.

The Systems Axiom  

Let us examine the reasons for this reluctance. It has been argued that velocity has little if any meaning if we are speaking of a completely isolated body, aka event-chain. We thus require at least two bodies that then form a dual system. And although, if we are confined to the point of view of one ‘inertial frame’ (which  we naturally consider to be at rest), we will attribute a certain ‘velocity’ to the other inertial frame (if it seems to be getting further away at each successive moment), this ‘velocity’ really belongs to the dual system ─ and not to either of the components of the system to the exclusion of the other. Very well. Considering the dual system, can we say that a situation where this system is expanding by d emplacements per ksana is ‘equivalent’ to a situation where it is expanding by 2d emplacements per ksana, or for that matter by zero emplacements per ksana? Or even by c* emplacements per ksana? Clearly, the situations or configurations of the dual system are not equivalent, cannot possibly be. However, we are asked to accept that the situations in each of the two components of the system are indistinguishable. Is this reasonable? No.
Why is it not reasonable? Because one would expect conditions of the system as a whole to have repercussions of some sort on all parts of the system : indeed, it is hardly conceivable that it could be otherwise. Certainly in most physical contexts this is what we find. If two bodies are linked by gravitational attraction, this systems situation is detectable in either one of the two (or more) bodies ─ provided we have sensitive enough instruments, of course. Similarly, for components of an electrical circuit. Indeed, one could argue that Newton’s 3rd Law makes something of the kind not just possible but obligatory.
This can be presented as an axiom :

If a system as a whole is subject to certain constraints, then so are all parts of the system and in a similar manner.

        Another statement of the principle would be :

If two or more configurations of a dual event-chain system are distinguishable when considering the system as a whole, then the configurations of each of the two or more components of the system must also be distinguishable considered individually. 

        Now, this axiom is incompatible with the Principle of Relativity, or at any rate what the Principle is taken to imply, namely that there is no way, from the inside, of distinguishing between inertial frames. Let us take a practical example.

The spaceship on the way to the moon

 Once a spaceship bound for the Moon has got sufficiently outside the Earth’s gravitational grip, the rocket motors are turned off. Neglecting minuscule perturbations from other planets, comets and so on, the rocket carries on at the same speed relative to the Earth and in more or less exactly the same direction : it does not drop back to what it was before. To reproduce previous conditions, say when the rocket was momentarily stationary relative to the Earth, it would be necessary to start other motors firing, i.e. to introduce a new force.
Now, so we are assured, astronauts devoid of radio contact, windows and so on, would not be able to tell whether the rocket or spaceship  was ‘in motion’ relative to the Earth or motionless. The dual system ‘rocket/Earth’ is very definitely not  the same in the two contexts. And the same goes for Galileo’s ‘port/ship’ system. If the ship is being rowed by galley-slaves on a calm sea, the distance between the repeating event-clusters we call ‘port’ and those we call ‘ship’ is increasing at every ksana, and so is the distance between the  rocket on its way to the Moon and the Earth.
If now we apply the ‘Systems under Constraint Axiom’, we must conclude that there is, at least  in principle, some way of distinguishing between the two situations. Why so? Because the constraints on the system are not the same. In the case of a stationary dual system, there is the constraint that, at the subsequent ksana, the distance between the two components can be at most c* units. If the system is already expanding by d units of distance, then there is the more stringent constraint that no increase greater than c* – d units of distance is possible. And in the case when the system is expanding at the maximum possible rate, c* positions per ksana, no further increase is possible at all : the constraint becomes a total ban.
So, according to the ‘Systems under Constraint Axiom’, since the system as a whole is under constraint, each component of the dual system is also under constraint and this constraint should in principle be observable. How can this be? Well, first of all, I need to work out a schema that allows such a distinction to be observable in principle; subsequently, it is for experiments to detect such a distinction, or some eventual consequence of such a distinction.
This is why, as stated earlier, I have eventually come to the unwelcome conclusion that the schemas of Ultimate Event Theory and Relativity diverge : they are not ‘homologous’ as mathematicians might put it.    This topic will be pursued in subsequent posts.    SH  1/8/14

 

Note 1  One is reminded at once of the human (pseudo)individual enmeshed in the web of karma. Except that, according to the Buddha, there is hope of escape.

Note 2   “Up, down, right’ left, all directions and places are based on some relation and it is necessary to suppose another body distant from the moving one ….. so that motion is relative in its nature, [and] it cannot be understood until the bodies are given in relation to which it [a particular body] exists, or generally there cannot be any relation, if there are no terms to be related.  Therefore, if we suppose that everything is annihilated except for one globe, it would be impossible to imagine any movement of that globe.”                              Bishop Berkeley, quoted Sciama

 Note 3  “All things are placed in time as to order of succession and in space as to order of succession. It is from their essence or nature that they are places; and that the primary places of things should be movable is absurd. (…) But because the parts of space cannot be seen, or distinguished from one another by our senses, therefore in their stead we use sensible measures for them. For from the positions and distances of things from any body considered as immovable, we define all places; and then with respect to such places, we estimate all motions….. And so, instead of absolute places and motions, we use relative ones.”                Newton, Principia ‘Scholium’ p.8 Motte’s translation  

Note 4  The late 19th century Austrian physicist Mach argued that the two descriptions, Earth rotating, Heavens fixed and Heavens rotating, Earth fixed, were equally valid and this was also Einstein’s view.

Note 5   Entangled photons and other particles do give rise to event correlations that far exceed c, but asuch associations of distant events are not considered to be causal in the normal sense. The issue bothered Einstein so much that he never accepted Quantum Mechanics in its then current form, nor would he have been any happier with it in its present form.

 

Note : Recent posts have focused on ‘macroscopic’ events and event-clusters, especially those relevant to personal ‘success’ and ‘failure’. I shall be returning to such themes eventually, but the point has now come to review the basic ‘concepts’ of ‘micro’ (‘ultimate’) events. The theory ─ or rather paradigm ─ seems to  know where it wants to go, and, after much trepidation, I have decided to give it its head, indeed I don’t seem to have any choice in the matter.  An informal ─ but nonetheless tolerably stringent ─ treatment now seems more appropriate than my original attempted semi-axiomatic presentation. SH   26/6/14

 Beginnings  

It is always necessary to start somewhere and assume certain things, otherwise you can never get going. Contemporary  physics may be traced back to Democritus’ atomism, that is to the idea that ‘everything’ is composed of small ‘bodies’ that cannot be further divided and which are indestructible ─ “Nothing exists except atoms and void” as Democritus put it succinctly. What Newton did was essentially to add in the concept of a ‘force’ acting between atoms and which affects the motions of the atoms and the bodies they form. ‘Classical’, i.e. post-Renaissance  but pre twentieth-century physics, is based on the conceptual complex atom/body/force/motion.

Events instead of things  

Ultimate Event Theory (UET), starts with the concept of the ‘event’. An event is precisely located : it happens at a particular spot and at a particular time, and there is nothing ‘fuzzy’ about this place and time. In contrast to a solid object an ‘event’ does not last long, its ‘nature’ is to appear, disappear and never come back again. Above all, an event does not ‘evolve’ : it is either not at all or ‘in one piece’. Last but not least, an ultimate event is always absolutely still : it cannot ‘move’ or change, only appear and disappear. However, in certain rare cases it can give rise to other ultimate events, either similar or dissimilar.

Rejection of Infinity 

The spurious notion of ‘infinity’ is completely excluded from UET: this clears the air considerably and allows one to deduce at once certain basic properties about events. To start with, macroscopic events, the only ones we are directly aware of, are not (in UET) made up of an ‘infinite’ number of ‘infinitely small’ micro-events: they are composed of a particular, i.e. finite, number of ‘ultimate events’ ─ ultimate because such micro-events cannot be further broken down (Note 1).

 Size and shape of Ultimate Events

Ultimate events may well  vary in size and shape and other characteristics but as a preliminary simplifying assumption, I assume that they are of the same shape and size, (supposing these terms are even meaningful at such a basic level). All ultimate events thus have exactly the same ‘spatio/temporal extent’ and this extent is an exact match for the ‘grid-spots’ or  ‘event-pits’ that ultimate events occupy on the Event Locality. The occupied region may be envisaged as a cuboid of dimensions su × su × su , or maybe a sphere of radius su ,  or indeed any shape of fixed volume which includes three dimensions at right angles to each other.
Every ultimate event occupies such a ‘space’ or ‘place’ for the duration of a single ksana of identical ‘length’ t0. Since everything that happens is reducible to a certain number of  ultimate events occupying fixed positions on the Locality, ‘nothing can happen’ within a spatial region smaller than su3 or within a ‘lapse of time’ smaller than t0. Though there may conceivably be smaller spatial and temporal intervals, they are irrelevant since Ultimate Event Theory is a theory about ‘events’ and their interactions, not about the Locality itself.

Event Kernels and Event Capsules 

The region  su3 t0  corresponds to the precise region occupied by an individual ultimate event. As soon as I started playing around with this simple model of precisely located ultimate events, I saw that it would be necessary to introduce the concept of the ‘Event Capsule’. The latter normally has a much greater spatial extent than that occupied by the ultimate event itself : it is only the small central region known as the ‘kernel’ that is of spatial extent su3, the relation between the kernel and the capsule as a whole being somewhat analogous to that between the nucleus and the enclosing atom. Although each ‘emplacement’ on the Locality can only receive a single ultimate event, the vast spatial region surrounding the ‘event-pit’ itself is, as it were, ‘flexible’. The essential point is that the Event Capsule, which completely fills the available ‘space’, is able to expand and contract when subject to external (or possibly also internal) forces.
There are, however, fixed limits to the size of an Event Capsule ─ everything except the Event Locality itself has limits in UET (because of the Anti-Infinity Axiom). The Event Capsule varies in spatial extent from the ‘default’, maximal size of s03 to the  absolute minimum size of u3which it attains when the Event Capsule has shrunk to the dimensions of the ‘kernel’ housing a single ultimate event.

Length of a ksana 

The ‘length’ of a ksana, the duration or ‘temporal dimension’ of an ultimate event, likewise of an Event Capsule, does not expand or contract but, by hypothesis, always stays the same. Why so? One could in principle make the temporal interval flexible as well but this seems both unnecessary and, to me, unnatural. The size of the enveloping capsule should not, by rights, have anything to do what actually occurs inside it, i.e. with the ultimate event itself, and, in particular, should not affect how long an ultimate event lasts. A gunshot is the same gunshot whether it is located within an area of a few square feet, within a square kilometre or a whole county, and it lasts the same length of time whether we record it as simply having taken place in such and such a year, or between one and one thirty p.m. of a particular day within this year.

Formation of Event-Chains and Event-clusters 

In contrast to objects, a fortiori organisms, it is in the nature of an ultimate event to appear and then disappear for ever : transience and ephemerality are of the very essence of Ultimate Event Theory. However, for reasons that we need not enquire into at present, certain ultimate events acquire the ability to repeat more or less identically during (or ‘at’) subsequent ksanas, thus forming event-chains. If this were not so, there would be no universe, no life, nothing stable or persistent, just a “big, buzzing confusion” of ephemeral ultimate events firing off at random and immediately subsiding into darkness once again.
Large repeating clusters of events that give the illusion of permanence are commonly known as ‘objects’ or ‘bodies’ but before examining these, it is better to start with less complex entities. The most rudimentary  type of event-chain is that composed of a single ultimate event that repeats identically at every ksana.

‘Rest Chains’

Classical physics kicks off with Galileo’s seminal concept of inertia which Newton later developed and incorporated into his Principia (Note 2). In effect, according to Galileo and Newton,  the ‘natural’ or ‘default’ state of a body is to be “at rest or in constant straight-line motion”. Any perceived deviation from this state is to be attributed to the action of an external force, whether this force be a contact force like friction or a force which acts from a distance like gravity.
As we know, Newton also laid it down as a basic assumption that all bodies in the universe attract all others. This means that, strictly speaking, there cannot be such a thing as a body that is exactly at rest (or moving exactly at a constant speed in a straight line) because the influence of other massive bodies would inevitably make such a body deviate from a state of perfect rest or constant straight-line motion. And for Newton there was only one universe and it was not empty.
However, if we  consider a body all alone in the depths of space, it is reasonable to dismiss the influence of all other bodies as entirely negligible ─ though the combined effect of all such influences is never exactly zero in Newtonian Mechanics. Our ideal isolated body will then remain at rest for ever, or if conceived as being in motion, this ‘motion’ will be constant and in a straight line. Thus Newtonian Mechanics. Einstein replaced the classical idea of an ‘inertial frame’ with the concept of a ‘free fall frame’, a region of Space/Time where no external forces could trouble an object’s state of rest ─ but also small enough for there to be no variation in the local gravitational field.
EVENT CAPSULE IMAGEIn a similar spirit, I imagine an isolated event-chain completely removed from any possible interference from other event-chains. In the simplest possible case, we thus have a single ultimate event which will carry on repeating indefinitely (though not for ‘ever and ever’) and each time it re-appears, this event will occupy an exactly similar spatial region on the Locality of size s03 and exist for one ksana, that is for a ‘time-length’ of to.  Moreover, the interval between successive appearances, supposing there is one, will remain the same. The trajectory of such a repeating event, the ‘event-line’ of the chain, may, very crudely, be modelled as a series of dots within surrounding boxes all of the same size and each ‘underneath’ the other.

True rest?

Such an event-chain may be considered to be ‘truly’ at rest ─ inasmuch as a succession of events can be so considered. In such a context, ‘rest’ means a minimum of interference from other event-chains and the Locality itself.
Newton thought that there was such a thing as ‘absolute rest’ though he conceded that it was apparently not possible to distinguish a body in this state from a similar body in an apparently identical state that was ‘in steady straight-line motion’ (Note 3). He reluctantly conceded that there were no ‘preferential’ states of motion and/or rest.
But Newton dealt in bodies, that is with collections of  atoms which were eternal and did not change ever. In Ultimate Event Theory, ‘everything’ is at rest for the space of a single ksana but ‘everything’ is also ceaselessly being replaced by other ‘things’ (or by nothing at all) over the ‘space’ of two or more ksanas. In the next post I will investigate what meaning, if any, is to be given to ‘velocity’ ‘acceleration’ and ‘inertia’ in Ultimate Event Theory.       SH  26/6/14

 Note 1  One could envisage the rejection of infinity as a postulate, one of the two or three most important postulates of Ultimate Event Theory, but I simply regard the concept of infinity as completely meaningless, as ‘not even wrong’.         I do, however,  admit the possibility of the ‘para-finite’ which is a completely different and far more reasonable concept. The ‘para-finite’ is a domain/state where all notions of measurement and quantity are meaningless and irrelevant : it is essentially a mystical concept (though none the worse for that) rather than a mathematical or physical one and so should be excluded from natural science.
The Greeks kept the idea of actual infinity firmly at arm’s length. This was both a blessing and, most people would claim, also a curse. A blessing because their cosmological and mathematical models of reality made sense, a curse because it stopped them developing the ‘sciences of motion’, kinematics and dynamics. But it is possible to have a science of dynamics without bringing in infinity and indeed this is one of the chief aims of Ultimate Event Theory.

Note 2  Galileo only introduced the concept of an ‘inertial frame’ to meet the obvious objection to the heliocentric theory, namely that we never feel the motion of the Earth around the Sun. Galileo’s reply was that neither do we necessarily detect the regular motion of a ship on a calm sea ─ the ship is presumably being rowed by well-trained galley-slaves. In his Dialogue Concerning the Two World Systems, (pp. 217-8 translator Drake) Galileo’s spokesman, Salviati, invites his friends to imagine themselves in a makeshift laboratory, a cabin below deck (and without windows) furnished with various homespun pieces of equipment such as a bottle hung upside down with water dripping out, a bowl of water with goldfish in it, some flies and butterflies, weighing apparatus and so on. Salviati claims that it would be impossible to know, simply by observing the behaviour of the drips from the bottle, the flight of insects, the weight of objects and so on, whether one was safely moored at a harbour or moving in a straight line at a steady pace on a calm sea.
        Galileo does not seem to have realized the colossal importance of this thought-experiment. Newton, for his part, does realize its significance but is troubled by it since he believes ─ or at least would like  to believe ─ that there is such a thing as ‘absolute motion’ and thus also ’absolute rest’. The question of whether Galileo’s principle did, or did not, cover optical (as opposed to mechanical) experiments eventually gave rise to the theory of Special Relativity. The famous Michelsen-Morley experiment was, to everyone’s surprise at the time, unable to detect any movement of the Earth relative to the surrounding ‘ether’. The Earth itself had in effect become Galileo’s ship moving in an approximately straight line at a steady pace through the surrounding fluid.
Einstein made it a postulate (assumption)  of his Special Theory that “the laws of physics are the same in all inertial frames”. This implied that the observed behaviour of objects, and even living things, would be essentially the same in any ‘frame’ considered to be ‘inertial’. The simple ‘mind-picture’ of a box-like container with objects inside it that are free to move, has had tremendous importance in Western science. The strange thing is that in Galileo’s time vehicles  ─ even his ship ─ were very far from being ‘inertial’, but his idea has, along with other physical ideas, made it possible to construct very tolerable ‘inertial frames’ such as high-speed trains, ocean liners, aeroplanes and space-craft.

Note 3  Newton is obviously ill at ease when discussing the possibility of ‘absolute motion’ and ‘absolute rest’. It would seem that he believed in both for philosophical (and perhaps also religious) reasons but he conceded that it would, practically speaking, be impossible to find out whether a particular state was to be classed as ‘rest’ or ‘straight-line motion’. In effect, his convictions clashed with his scientific conscience.

“Absolute motion, is the translation of a body from one absolute place into another. Thus, in a ship under sail, the relative place of a body is that part of the ship which the body possesses, or that part of its cavity which the body fills, and which therefore moves together with the ship, or its cavity. But real, absolute rest, is the continuance of the body in the same part of that immovable space in which the ship itself, its cavity and all that it contains, is moved. (…) It may be, that there is no such thing as an equable motion, whereby time may be accurately measured. (…) Instead of absolute places and motions we use relative ones; and that without any inconvenience in common affairs: but in philosophical disquisitions, we ought to abstract from our senses and consider things themselves, distinct from what are only sensible measures of them. For it may be that there is no body really at rest, to which the places and motions of others may be referred.”
Newton, Principia, I, 6 ff.

 

“There are more things in earth and heaven, Horatio,
Than are dreamed of in your philosophy.”
Hamlet, I. 2

“Like everyone else I am part of a play whose script is being written as I live it.”
John Conyngham, The Arrowing of the Cane

 In the Beginning…..Jung

Jung did not invent the German term Synchronizität that is translated as ‘synchronicity’ but, on his own admission, he did give it a special meaning, and it is certainly Jung who aroused widespread interest in the topic, an interest  which has continued unabated right up to the present day. So it is only fitting to start with him.
Jung is anxious to distinguish a ‘synchronicity’ from a ‘synchronism’ “which simply means the simultaneous occurrence of two events”. In “Synchronicity : An Acausal Connecting Principle” (Note 1) Jung writes :

“Synchronicity therefore means the simultaneous occurrence of a certain psychic state with one or more external events which appear as meaningful parallels to the momentary state.” (p. 36)

Thus we have (1) a ‘psychic state’;  (2) an objective event; (3) a parallelism between the two and (4) a ‘meaning’ attributed to the association.
But what makes an incident ‘meaningful’? As a psycho-analyst who was also intensely interested in the occult, Jung tended to regard an occurrence as ‘meaningful’  if (1) it gave him a supposed deeper insight into the character of the patient and (2) had ‘mythic’ associations of which the patient was more often than not unaware.
Jung leaves out from this formal definition a crucial element : that the ‘meaningful coincidence’ is what he calls ‘acausal’ (non-causal). He does, however, say this a few lines earlier :

“I am using the general concept of synchronicity in the special sense of a coincidence in time of two or more causally unrelated events which have the same or similar meaning.”

Scarab   

The most famous example of a Jungian synchronicity is the  ‘scarab beetle incident’. In Jung’s own words

“A young woman I was treating had at a critical moment, a dream in which she was given a golden scarab. While she was telling me her dream I sat with my back to the closed window. Suddenly, I heard a noise behind me, a gentle tapping. I turned round and saw a flying insect knocking against the window pane from outside. I opened the window and caught the creature in the air as it flew in. It was the nearest analogy to a golden scarab that one finds in our latitudes, a scarabaeid beetle, the common rose-chafer (Cetonia aurata), which contrary to its usual habits had evidently felt an urge to get into the dark room at this particular moment.”         Jung, Synchronicity p. 31

Note that the beetle was not a figment of the imagination since Jung caught it in his hand. Jung adds later that the young woman in question “was an extraordinarily difficult case to treat” and, appropriately enough, according to Jung, one of her chief problems was that she was ‘over-rational’.
Now, this anecdote does fulfil all the requirements of the definition : there is simultaneity, there is mental/physical parallelism and there is archetypal meaning (since the scarab was extremely important in Egyptian religion). Whether it is sufficiently remarkable to be considered other than a curiosity depends on how likely we consider it to be for a ‘common’ beetle to arrive at this particular moment ─ and I leave you to decide on this.

An ‘Acausal’ Principle 

How does Jung ‘explain’ the incident? He does so by suggesting that there exists in Nature, alongside causality, an ‘acausal’ principle which connects certain events to others in a manner that causality does not permit. For causality, as normally interpreted, is subject to various quite stringent constraints. The two events must not be strictly simultaneous,  there must be a possible physical link, the two systems must have something in common and so on. In particular, there is no known causal mechanism that can link a mental or psychological event directly to an objective physical one. But the ‘acausal’ principle can override all these constraints since ‘synchronistic’ events “prove to be relatively independent of space and time in so far as space in principle presents no obstacle to their passage and the sequence of events in time is [sometimes] inverted, so that it looks as if an event which has not yet occurred were causing a perception in the present” (Synchronicity , p. 144).

Jung does not consider the possibility that his disturbed patient in some way caused the cockchafer beetle to materialize or, alternatively, ‘attracted’ one that already existed to the window. This would save causality but at the cost of accepting the possibility of ‘mind over matter’, at least in certain exceptional circumstances. Seemingly, Jung, acting for once like a straightforward rationalist, thought the cost was too high. So he had to invent a new and different force.
Jung also recounts the case of a woman who has a (correct)  premonition of her husband’s collapse and eventual death when she sees a flock of birds settling on the roof of her house. Apparently, flocks of birds had gathered outside the window at the death of the woman’s mother and grandmother. Jung admits that people in the Romantic era would have spoken of “some ‘sympathy’ or ‘magnetism’ which had attracted the birds to the scene of death but concludes that “such phenomena cannot be explained causally unless one permits oneself the most fantastic ad hoc hypotheses”.
Jung was interested in divinatory procedures and was probably the  first academic to take the Y Ching seriously. He interprets ‘mantic procedures’ including ‘horary astrology’ (where you ask a question and interpret the horoscope of the moment) as examples of synchronicity ─ “the psychic and the physical event (namely the subject’s problems and choice of horoscope) correspond, it would seem, to the nature of the archetype in the background and could therefore represent a synchronistic phenomenon” (p. 80). One fails to see what the ‘archetype in the background’ is doing here : a more natural explanation would be that the subject simply ‘objectifies’ an internal state which shows up in the symbolic system used, in this case astrology.
In conclusion, then, Jung regularly prefers to advance his own complicated ‘acausal’ explanation rather than to relax the rules for the lawful operation of causality to allow for ‘mind over matter’. I am not sure that this is the right choice since his ‘acausal’ explanation is just as far-fetched as the alternative ‘psychic-projection theory’, while it is certainly more difficult to comprehend. Still, Jung may have been on to something for all that.

Madeleine Synchronicity

Do synchronicities necessarily have anything to do with myths and archetypes as Jung suggests? To judge by the ‘synchronicities’ that have happened to me, been recounted to me by friends or are listed in books such as Coincidence by Brian Inglis, the answer is no. Nor do they necessarily reveal anything particular about a person’s character or mental state except perhaps that he or she is highly impressionable. More often than not synchronicities don’t have any  ‘meaning’ at all, archetypal or otherwise, nor do they tell you anything you did not already know. They remain nonetheless perplexing. Take the following example.
During my formative hippie years of drifting aimlessly around Europe, I was temporarily lodged by a woman in a Parisian suburb, Juvisy. This woman had a partner from whom she was separated and who did not live there but visited occasionally. She also had a daughter by a previous marriage, Madeleine by name, who sometimes stayed at the flat. The woman‘s partner was an interesting but somewhat dodgy  character who had twice been in prison and he ended up wanting to get me out of the flat because of a developing relation with the daughter. On one occasion he threatened me with a kitchen knife and I fled from the flat in fear (though probably nothing much would have happened had I stayed.) Running through the streets I was brought up short by an enormous white sheet stretched all the way across a railway bridge with large painted letters in bold red “JOURNEE DE SANG” (‘Day of blood’). This didn’t look a very promising omen and, somewhat unnerved, a few streets on I took refuge in a second-hand shop. I idly took up a battered paperback and opened it at random. The first sentence I saw was the fragment of a conversation “‘Tu dois partir’” (‘You must leave’). The name of the heroine in the novel was Madeleine (the name of the young woman).
The banner ‘Journée de Sang’ turned out to be for a Blood Transfusion Event ─ I don’t take this as a ‘synchronicity’ though it’s a rather amusing detail in retrospect. But the chances of coming across by chance, at that precise moment, a novel with that particular sentence and a heroine of exactly the right name must be trillions to one. And moreover it seems reasonable to suppose that my emotional state had something to do with this.
Excited states do indeed seem to make coincidences of this kind more likely. A woman who eventually became a priest told me that, in her youth, she had had a relation with a married man about which she had always felt uneasy. One day, pondering this, she opened the Bible at random and at once fell on the verse “What God has joined, let no man rent asunder” from Saint Paul. What to conclude? The convinced sceptic dismisses this as pure chance. A believer would see this as the ‘voice of God’ speaking. As far as I am concerned, the woman’s unconscious had directed her to this text (since she was already anxious about the situation). This is, I would claim, by far the most natural explanation. But one fails to see what mechanism could possibly have led the woman to the ‘right’ page and the ‘right’ verse.
Note that I did not gain any new information by opening the novel in  the second-hand shop since I had already more or less  decided not to return to the flat except to pick up my things, nor did the woman glean any new information. The only possible ‘explanations’ of the Madeleine incident are (1) not to attempt to explain it at all but simply dismiss it as an oddity; or (2) to conclude that my emotional state somehow ‘caused’ me to pick up this particular book, open it at precisely that page and read that particular sentence. But how on earth could I know that this sentence was in this particular book in this shop? Brian Inglis’s book Coincidence is choc-a-bloc with even stranger coincidences. 

Objective Synchronicities : Plum Pudding and M. de Fontgibu

Apart from the scarab beetle case, the most famous synchronicity is the M. de Fontgibu plum pudding story. This is a completely different type of synchronicity since the emotional state of the persons involved has no bearing at all on what happened.

“As a schoolboy in Orleans, Emile Deschamps was given a taste of plum pudding ─ then hardly known in France ─ by M. de Fontgibu, one of the emigrés who had fled to England during the Revolution and had returned. Some ten years later, walking along the Boulevard Poissonnière in Paris, Deschamps noticed a plum pudding in a restaurant window, and went to ask if he could have a slice. ‘M. de Fontgibu,’ the dame du comptoircalled out to a customer, ‘would you have the goodness to share your plum pudding with this gentleman?’ (…)

Many years after the restaurant encounter, Deschamps was invited to dine in a Paris apartment and his hostess told him he would be having plum pudding. Jokingly, he said that he was sure M. de Fontgibu would be one of the party. When the pudding was served, and the guests were enjoying the dinner, the door opened and a servant announced: ‘M. de Fontgibu’.
At first Deschamps thought his hostess must be playing a joke on him. He saw it really was Fontgibu when the old man, by this time enfeebled, tottered round the table, looking bemused. It turned out that he had been invited to dinner in the same house, but had come to the wrong apartment.”
Inglis, Coincidence    p. 1        The story was told by Deschamps himself to the French astronomer Flammarion who published it in his book  L’Inconnu (1901).
There is no means of checking its authenticity but it sounds perfectly feasible to me since one could hardly imagine someone making up such a preposterous story. I shall comment on it in a moment.

Seriality

In 1919, somewhat before Jung wrote his own article, the Austrian zoologist Kammerer published a book called Das Gesetz der Serie where he puts forward the idea that certain events relating to a particular theme ‘repeat’ rather in the way that a main wave creates subsidiary ripples. He gives various examples of this, such as the exact same numbers appearing on tram and cloakroom tickets within a single day, a proper name cropping up in all sorts of unrelated contexts, a tune played on the radio just when you are thinking about it and so on. Note that these phenomena differ from the Jungian scheme since the events are sequential rather than simultaneous (though occurring within a fairly circumscribed time interval such as a day). Also, the mental state of the observer, or ‘experiencer’, does not seem to matter so much ─ but people prone to serial coincidences, in my experience, do tend to be highly strung.
It is open to debate whether there really is a ‘law of series’ as Kammerer believed and the reader must decide for himself on the basis of his own experience. But, for what it is worth ─ and it is worth something ─  folk wisdom throughout the world tells us that “It never rains but it pours”, that “Misfortunes never come singly” and so on and so forth. Gamblers, sportsmen, entrepreneurs, people who live by their wits and adventurers generally almost to a man (or woman) firmly believe in the reality of ‘runs’ and lucky or unlucky breaks, as indeed I do myself. Statisticians despair of ever being able to uproot this irrational prejudice and are reduced to ascribing it to wish fulfilment.
There is another explanation, however : that this is what the data is actually telling you. Scientists and philosophers today are well insulated against the uncertainties of ‘real life’  : they are armchair military theorists who have never been under fire. What they say is not necessarily wrong, but should be treated with some caution. Active people tend to believe in luck, bad or good, and learn to cope with uncertainty rather than try to eliminate it. Nor is this necessarily a matter of believing in guardian angels because this makes you feel good : ‘runs’ are also things to be wary of. My experience tells me that there is something distinctly non-random about random events ─ and the more random, i.e. uncontrolled, the events, the more likely they are to show signs of an intermittent and elusive order lurking in the background. Jung was right at least in this : what order there is, is not the usual sort of clear-cut cause and effect.
Kammerer, who led an unusual life for a career scientist (Note 2), noticed that there was something ‘not quite right’ with the way events evolve into each other, occasionally forming distinct repetitive patterns : it is as if events had a life of their own, or were being manipulated by an  external intelligence for  her or its amusement.  A delusion? Maybe, but maybe not. Einstein, in this respect so much more broad-minded than your normal rationalist/scientist, read Kammerer’s book with interest and pronounced it ‘by no means absurd’.

The Viewpoint of Eventrics 

The theory of Eventrics, of which Ultimate Event Theory is, as it were, the ‘nuclear’ or atomic part, is just as ‘mechanistic’ as Newtonian Mechanics ─ indeed rather more so since Newton at least assumed the existence of a cosmic designer whereas Ultimate Event Theory holds that the universe came about spontaneously, is self-sustaining and up to a point self-correcting.
So what does Eventrics have to say about the sort of ‘synchronicities’ or ‘meaningful coincidences’ mentioned?
Eventrics ─ which is based on the premise that “the world is made up of events and not of things” ─  undoubtedly offers much more leeway for the occurrence of such things (sic) as meaningful coincidences and synchronicities. If Space and Time are continuous, which is the official view, it  is difficult to see how particular streams of events could abruptly change course or be brought under any kind of selective control. But if physical reality is more like a mosaic where there are definite gaps between event-blocks, then it becomes perfectly conceivable that such blocks might sometimes become disarranged, giving rise to apparent causal anomalies. Also, it might not be completely impossible to, as it were, swap one event-block for another.
‘Objective Coincidences’ such as the Fontgibu ‘plum pudding’ synchronicity make perfect sense within the world-view of Eventrics : they are  ‘mismatches’ of pairs of (macroscopic) events, comparable to DNA transcription errors that give rise to mutations. In the M. de Fontgibu saga, two originally unrelated macro-events for some reason got paired off with each other. Event A, the eating of plum pudding in France in Deschamps’ lifetime became systematically connected to event B, the presence of M. de Fontgibu on the scene. Such ‘event mismatches’ might turn out to have a silver lining and give rise to ‘lucky breaks’, but the chances are that they will have no particular importance. Nonetheless, the very  existence of such anomalies implies that the functioning of the colossal event-machine we call the physical universe does not proceed without the occasional glitch ─ though generally extremely reliable, Nature does occasionally mess up. It would be like a skilful mechanic who, on an off day, puts the wrong nut on a screw.
What about Jung’s cases of ‘psycho-physical parallelism’? There is in Eventrics little or no difference between ‘mental’ and ‘physical’ events ─ both are events and are subject to similar or identical ‘laws’ of attraction and association. In consequence, the notion that someone can bring about changes in the material world by projecting out, consciously or unconsciously, a mental state, i.e. by connecting up an emotional event-block to an  external one, is not ruled out a priori. But I do not see the need to drag in a supposed ‘acausal principle’ : causality by itself suffices. The emotionally disturbed person brings about, by a form of event sequencing we do not at present understand, an objective occurrence that otherwise would not take place, that is all. This is surprising but not particularly shocking.
Jung’s simultaneous ‘acausally related’ events, and alleged time-reversals, can be accommodated by broadening the conditions for the operation of causal forces. In earlier versions of Eventrics, where I spoke of ‘Dominance’ rather than Causality,  I introduced the notion of the ‘Equal Dominance’ where each of a pair of events is just as ‘dominant’ as the other  ─ in effect an inseparable dual system suddenly comes into existence. So simultanaous events can still be causally related. This idea does the same work as Jung acausal principle. However, I am no longer sure that this treatment is any better than Jung’s since something other than the events themselves must cause the double-event to appear ─ maybe, after all, there is a universal principle that lies somewhere in between causality and pure chance as Jung surmised.
As for apparent time reversals, they can be accommodated within the framework of Eventrics by supposing that in some cases entire event-blocks, which would normally be composed of separate ‘cause and effect’, get produced ‘at one fell swoop’. In such  cases, the order of occurrence of the constituent events ceases to matter, and the apparent ‘effect’ can precede the ‘cause’. But this is not a true time-reversal since the flow of causality is still uni-directional, from past to future. I consider the idea that a future event can influence a present or past one to be ridiculous : either you have everything happening in an eternal present as Einstein believed towards the end of his life, or you have a single time direction. Nonetheless, because reality is a mosaic, different pieces can get ‘out of step’ as it were and have different time schemes. It seems that we have to accept that there is no single ‘Now’ which applies right across the universe but, certainly, within a particular region there is only one direction for the arrow of time. (Time, of course, in Ultimate Event Theory  is not an arrow but a sequence of stills which gives the illusion of continuity.)

Providential Coincidences 

So, arguably, Eventrics can cope slightly better than contemporary physical theories with some types of synchronicity and  meaningful coincidence. Nonetheless, there remains a large class of phenomena that does not fit into the underlying ‘world-view’ of Eventrics any more than it fits into the various scientific paradigms on offer, classical or modern. This class consists precisely of the most interesting synchronicities and coincidences, those  where the ‘chance’ association of two or more events strongly suggests that there is a (usually benevolent) organizing intelligence at work, either ‘in here’ (in the unconscious) or ‘out there’ (in the universe). In many ways the most puzzling (though the least alarming) synchronicities are those of the ‘Library Angel’  type. Someone is searching for the name of something, a quotation, a particular book : he or she ic opens a book ‘by chance’ and voilà there is what he or she was searching for. Take the well-known de Morgan case, which is almost certainly authentic since de Morgan, a leading Victorian mathematician and logician did not believe in the paranormal.
The exact details need not concern us but the gist is that de Morgan was anxious to trace a paper the physicist Fresnel had sent to England some years previously for translation in the European Review. In de Morgan’s words :

“The question was what had become of the paper. I examined the Review at the Museum, found no trace of the paper, and wrote to that effect at the Museum, adding that everything now depended on ascertaining the name of the editor, and tracing his papers: of this I thought there was no chance. I posted this letter on my way home, at a Post Office in the Hampstead Road at the junction with Edward Street, on the opposite side of which is a bookstall. Lounging for a moment over the exposed books, I saw, within a few minutes of the posting of the letter, a little catch-penny book of anecdotes of Macaulay, which I bought, and ran over for a minute. My eye was soon caught by this sentence: ‘One of the young fellows immediately wrote to the editor (Mr. Walker) of the European Review’. I thus got the clue by which I ascertained that there was no chance of recovering Fresnel’s paper. Of the mention of current reviews, not one in a thousand names the editor.”      de Morgan, A Budget of Paradoxes recounted Inglis, p. 34 

        Note that this is a Jungian synchronicity: there is (1) near simultaneity between the writing and posting of the letter and coming across  the book; (2) a direct connection between a mental state, concern to find the paper, and a physical act, buying and reading the book; (3) ‘meaning’ ─ since de Morgan obtained what was, to him, very valuable in formation.
What is striking about such synchronicities is, firstly, that a ‘random’ act is always involved (“Lounging for a moment over the exposed books… ”) but that this casually unrelated act proves to be far more effective than a systematic search (“Of this [discovering he name of the editor] I thought there was no chance”).

“What is to be done?”  

Basically, when confronted with synchronicities and ‘meaningful coincidences’, there are only two options : either you dismiss  them or you take them seriously. If you take them seriously, this means that there is a genuine rather than an apparent causal process at work ─ or, for Jung, an equally important ‘acausal’ principle.
So what can/should be done with such things? Can this principle be put to good/bad use?
There is certainly potential here. What synchronicities and meaningful coincidences imply is that human beings can (1) do a lot more than they think they can; (2) know a lot more than they think they know and/or (3) that there are entities of some kind ‘out there’ ready and willing to provide assistance, or alternatively to lead people astray.  For scientific rationalists, all three possibilities are unthinkable, therefore all such phenomena must be ascribed to chance.
For  Jungian  ‘psycho-physical’ synchronicities imply that human beings have the power to project outward mental states and turn them into objective realities, as it is claimed Tibetan monks can, or at least could, do. It might thus be desirable to make oneself more prone to synchronicities and the like. Since many (but not all) of such occurrences happen when people are  in  heightened  emotional states (fear, guilt, intense desire, curiosity &c.), one method would simply consist in exposing oneself deliberately to extreme situations. This is what Rimbaud had in mind when he talked of a “systematic derangement of the senses” and plenty of  contemporary cults and the exotic self-help therapies aim to do just this.  The method is, however,  for obvious reasons, hazardous. The difficult part is dosing the derangement so that it is kept within certain bounds ─ which means part of oneself has to remain unaffected. There is also the question of what you are going to do with all the synchronicities when and if they do start occurring nineteen to the dozen.
On a different tack, if one takes the ‘Library Angel’ cases seriously, this means that human beings in principle have access to a much vaster store of information than we think we have : we don’t just have Google but something like the Jungian collective unconscious or the Akashic Records to click onto. Most brain activity consists of sorting out the vast amounts of data streaming in and only keeping near the top for easy access the bits rightly or wrongly deemed important. We know a lot more than what we think we know but we usually don’t know how to access it  : the value of extreme situations is that, when it is a matter of survival, the mind overrides the normal barriers and so has a better chance of  reaching the less accessible areas. This is why there is so much importance given to ‘changing awareness’ in mystic cults. As Strogatz said (in a completely different context) “There are things that are staring us in the face, but we can’t see them because we haven’t developed the conceptual tools to handle them”.
At the end of the day, when considering such matters, one has to tackle the question of what it is ‘in here’ or ‘out there’ that is directing, or at least influencing to some degree, the synchronous current that sweeps one along. Is there a ‘Hidden Hand’? Inhabitants of previous eras had no trouble at this level ─ no conceptual trouble that is ─  since almost everyone believed in “thrones, dominations and powers” as Saint Paul put it. Today, we don’t much believe in these things which means that there are no agents available to do any pushing or redirecting. Worse still, there aren’t really any human wills capable of doing any pushing either. The whole trend of scientific thought and rationalism in the last one hundred and fifty years in the West has been towards a drastic reduction of the scope and range of the human individual : he or she has become  a helpless subject of impersonal deterministic forces that not only he has no hope of controlling, but precious little hope of even remotely understanding unless he has studied (very) advanced mathematics. Nor is Quantum Indeterminacy of the slightest use here, since there is ─ so we are endlessly assured ─ no way to get a handle on the uncertainties and exercise control over them (Note 3).
Synchronicities and meaningful coincidences are chinks in the seemingly impregnable armour of contemporary scientific rationalism and these chinks are inevitably going to be opened. The violent reaction of the scientific establishment towards any straying from the beaten track into paranormal territory only goes to show how threatened at a deep level orthodoxy feels. “Embarrassing questions tend to remain unasked, or if asked, to be answered rudely” writes Medawar in The Future of Man. Yes, quite.
Electricity started off as a fairground amusement : in the eighteenth-century people queued up to be given an electric shock and no one at the time had the faintest idea that this  amusing phenomenon would one day become the principal energy source for a whole country. Maybe something of the sort will happen in this century on a mental level.

 SH   18/6/14

Postscript:  I do not comment on the recent book on Synchronicity by Kirby Surprise because I have not read it yet, but there is an insightful review on the website of EllisNelson that revived my interest in the subject and prompted me to write this post

Note 1 All references are to the Ark Paperback C.G. Jung Synchronicity, an Acausal Connecting Principle which is a translation by R.F.C. Hull of part of Volume 8 of Jung’s Collected Works. This is itself an expansion of the original brief article Über Synchronizität published in Eranos Jahrbuch 1951.    

Note 2  Kammerer eventually committed suicide but not for reasons that had anything to do with a ‘law of series’ as far as we know. He had the  temerity to oppose neo-Darwinian orthodoxy and was accused of fudging his results, see Koestler’s book The case of the Midwife Toad. It has been suggested that a female student or colleague of Kammerer, infatuated with Kammerer,  tampered with the evidence in oestler Today, a m isguided attempt to help him. His biological theories, dismissed because of their alleged Lamarckism, have resurfaced in epigenetics and a Peruvian team has gone so far as to say he was on the right lines.

Note 3  One or two psychoanalysts familiar with quantum theory, notably Ninian Marshall, have  attempted to put telepathy on a quantum footing.
“Marshall’s theory recalls that a sub-atomic system is always, at any given time, a mixture of possibility and actuality, the one tending to give way to the other over a range of probabilities. (..) Each virtual transition is precisely a dip into the future, a future from which the particle ‘comes back’ to live out whichever actual state it has chosen to settle into. The premise on which Marshall based his theory was that precognition could be explained if there was a way that the brain could ‘tune into’ these virtual dips into the future…..”  Danah Zohar, Through the Time Barrier
 The next step from the idea that one can become aware of these ‘virtual futures’ is the notion that one can intervene and make the more attractive options the ones that get realized. If this general schema is correct (which I believe it is), this could give rise to a new form of technology. Instead of breaking down and rebuilding actual substances  — which is essentially what manufacturing does —  one would operate on ‘things’ that are nearly, but not quite, actual.

Two Models of the Beginning of the Universe

 There are basically two models for how the universe began. According to the first, the universe, by which we should understand the whole of physical reality, was deliberately created by a unique Being. This is the well-known Judaeo-Christian schema which until recently reigned supreme.
According to the second schema, the universe simply came about spontaneously: no one planned  it and no one made it happen. It ‘need not have been’, was essentially  ‘the product of chance’. This seems to be the Eastern view, though we also  come across it in some Western societies at an early stage of their development for example in Greece (Note 1).
Although for a long time the inhabitants of the Christian West were totally uninterested in the workings of the natural world, the ‘Creationist’ model eventually led on to the development of science as we know it. For, so it was argued, if the universe was deliberately created, its creator must have had certain rules and guidelines that He imposed on his creation. These rules could conceivably be discovered, in which case many of the mysteries of the physical universe would be explained. Moreover, if the Supreme Designer or Engineer really was all-knowing, one set of rules would suffice for all time. This was basically the world-view of the men who masterminded the scientific revolution in the West,  men such as Galileo, Kepler, Descartes, Newton and Leibnitz, all firm believers in both God and the power of mathematics which they viewed as the ‘language of God’ inasmuch as He had one.
If, on the other hand, the universe was the product of chance, one would not expect it to necessarily obey a set of rules, and if the universe was in charge of itself, as it were, things could change abruptly at any moment. In such a case, clever people might indeed notice certain regularities in the natural world but there would be no guarantee that these regularities were binding or would continue indefinitely. The Chinese equivalent of Euclid was the Y Ching, The Book of Changes, where the very title indicates a radically different world view. The universe is something that is in a perpetual state of flux, while nonetheless remaining ‘in essence’ always the same. According to Needham, the main reason why the scientific and technological revolution did not happen in China rather than the West, given that China was for a long time centuries ahead of the West technically, was that Chinese thinkers lacked  the crucial notion of unchanging ‘laws of Nature’ (Note 2).
Interestingly, there is a noticeable shift in Western thought towards the second model : the consensus today is that the universe did indeed come about ‘by chance’ and the same goes for life. However, contemporary physicists still hold tenaciously onto the idea that there are nonetheless certain more or less unchanging physical laws and rational principles which are in some sense ‘outside Nature’ and independent of it.  So the laws remain even though the Lawmaker has long since died quietly in his bed.

Emergent Order and Chaos

Models of the second ‘Spontaneous Emergence’ type generally posit an initial ‘Chaos’ which eventually settles down into a semblance of Order. True Chaos (not the contemporary physical theory of the same name (Note 3)) is a disordered free-for-all: everything runs into everything else and the world, life, us, are at best an ephemeral emergent order that suddenly occurs like the ripples the wind makes on the surface of a pond ─ and may just as suddenly disappear.
Despite the general triumph of Order over Chaos in Western thinking, even in the 19th century a few discordant voices dissented from the prevailing  orthodoxy ─ but none of them were practising scientists. Nietzsche, in a remarkable passage quoted by Sheldrake, writes:

“The origin of the mechanical world would be a lawless game which would ultimately acquire such consistency as the organic laws seem to have… All our mechanical laws would not be eternal but would have survived innumerable alternative mechanical laws” (Note 4)

Note that, according to this view, even the ‘laws of Nature’ are not fixed once and for all : they are subject to a sort of natural selection process just like everything else. This is essentially the viewpoint adopted in Ultimate Event Theory i.e. the universe was self-created, it has ascertainable ‘laws’ but these regularities need not be unchanging nor binding in all eventualities.

In the Beginning…. Random Ultimate Events  

In the beginning was the Void but the Void contained within itself the potential for ‘something’. For some reason a portion of the Void became active and random fluctuations appeared across its surface. These flashes that I call ‘ultimate events’ carved out for themselves emplacements within or on the Void, spots where they could and did have occurrence. Part at least of the Void had become a place where ultimate events could happen, i.e. an Event Locality. Such emplacements or ‘event-pits’ do not, by assumption, have a fixed shape but they do have fixed ‘extent’.
Usually, ultimate events occur once and disappear for ever, having existed for the ‘space’ of a single ksana only. However, if this was all that happened ever, there would be no universe, no matter, no solar system, no us. There must, then, seemingly have been some mechanism which allowed for the eventual formation of relatively persistent event clusters and event-chains : randomness must ultimately be able to give rise to its opposite, causal order. This is reasonable enough since if a ‘system’ is truly random, and is allowed to go on long enough, it will eventually cover all possibilities, and the emergence of ‘order’ is one of them.
As William James writes:
“There must have been a far-off antiquity, one is tempted to suppose, when things were really chaotic. Little by little, out of all the haphazard possibilities of that time, a few connected things and habits arose, and the rudiments of regular performance began.”

This suggests the most likely mechanism : repetition which in time gave rise to ingrained habits. Such a simple progression requires no directing intelligence and no complicated physical laws.
Suppose an ultimate event has occurrence at a particular spot on the Locality; it then disappears for ever. However, one might imagine that the ‘empty space’ remains, at least for a certain time. (Or, more correctly, the emplacement repeats, even though its original occupant is long gone). The Void has thus ceased to be completely homogeneous because it is no longer completely empty: there are certain mini-regions where emplacements for further ultimate events persist. These spots  might attract further ultimate events since the emplacement is there already, does not have to be created.
This goes on for a certain time until a critical point is reached. Then something completely new happens: an ultimate event repeats in the ‘same’ spot at the very next ksana, and, having done this once, carries on repeating for a certain time. The original ultimate event has thus acquired the miraculous property of persistence and an event-chain is born. Nothing succeeds like success and the persistence of one  event-chain makes the surrounding region more propitious for the development of similar rudimentary event-chains which, when close enough, combine to form repeating event-clusters. This is roughly how I see the ‘creation’ of the massive repeating event-cluster we call the universe. Whether the latter emerged at one fell swoop (Big Bang Theory) or bit by bit as in Hoyle’s modified Steady State Theory is not the crucial point and will be decided by observation. However, I must admit that piecemeal manifestation seems more likely a priori. Either way, according to UET, the process of event-chain formation ‘from nothing’ is still going on. 

The Occurrence Function  

This, then, is the general schema proposed ─ how to model it mathematically? We require a ‘Probability Occurrence Function’ which increases very slowly but, once it has reached a critical point, becomes unity or slightly greater than unity.
The Void or Origin, referred to in UET as K0 , is ‘endless’ but we shall only concerned with a small section of it. When empty of ultimate events, K0  is featureless but, when active, it has the capacity to  provide emplacements for ultimate events ─ for otherwise they would not occur. A particular region of K0 can accommodate a maximum of, say, N ultimate events at one and the same ksana. N is a large, but not ‘infinite’ number ─ ‘infinity’ and ‘infinitesimals’ are completely excluded from UET. If there are N potential emplacements and the events appear at random, there is initially a 1/N chance of an ultimate event occurring at one particular emplacement.
However, once an ultimate event has occurred somewhere (and subsequently disappeared), the emplacement remains and the re-occurrence of an event at this spot, or within a certain radius of this spot,  becomes very slightly more likely, i.e. the probability is greater than 1/N. For no two events are ever completely independent in Ultimate Event Theory. Gradually, as more events have occurrence within this mini-region, the radius of probable re-occurrence narrows and  eventually an ultimate event acquires the miraculous property of repeating at the same spot (strictly speaking, the equivalent spot at a subsequent ksana). In other words, the probability of re-occurrence is now a certainty and the ultimate event has turned into an event-chain.
As a first very crude approximation I suggest something along the following lines. P(m) stands for the probability of the occurrence of an ultimate event at a particular spot. The Rule is : 

P(m+1) = P(m) (1/N) ek    m = (–1),0,1, 2, 3…..

P(0) = 1     P(1) = (1/N)

Then,

P(2) = (1/N) (1/N) ek = (1/N2) ek
P(3) = ((1/N2) ek) (1/N) ek = (1/N3) e2k
P(4) = (1/N3) e2k (1/N) ek = (1/N4) e3k
P(5) = (1/N4) e4k (1/N) ek = (1/N5) e4k
P(m+1) = (1/Nm+1) emk  

Now, to have P(m+1) ≥ 1  we require

(1/Nm+1) emk ≥ 1
emk ≥  Nm+1
 mk ≥ (m+1) ln N     (taking logs base e on both sides)
k ≥ ((m+1)/m) ln N  

       If we set k as the first integer > ln N  this will do the trick.
For example, if we take N = 1050   ln N = 115.129….
       Then, e116(m+1)  > (1050)m+1 for any m ≥ 0 

However, we do not wish the function to get to unity or above straightaway. Rather, we wish for some function of N which converges very slowly to ln N  or rather to some value slightly above ln N (so that it can attain ln N). Thus k = f(N) such that ef(N)(m+1) ≥ Nm+1
       I leave someone more competent than myself to provide the details of such a function.
This ‘Probability Occurrence Function’ is the most important function in Ultimate Event Theory since without it  there would be no universe, no us, indeed nothing at all except random ultimate events firing off aimlessly for all eternity. Of course, when I speak of a mathematical function providing a mechanism for the emergence of the universe,  I do not mean to imply that a mathematical formula in any way ‘controls’ reality, or is even a ‘blueprint’ for reality. From the standpoint of UET, a mathematical formula is simply a description in terms comprehensible to humans of what apparently goes on and,  given the basic premises of UET, must go on.

Note the assumptions made. They are that:

(1) There is a region of K0 which can accommodate N ultimate events within a single ksana, i.e. can become an Event Locality with event capacity N;
(2) Ultimate events occur at random and continue to occur at random except inasmuch as they are more likely to re-appear at a spot where they have previously appeared;
(3) ‘Time’ in the sense of a succession of moments of equal duration, i.e. ksanas, exists from the very beginning, but not ‘space’;
(4) ‘Space’ comes into existence in a piecemeal fashion as, or maybe just before, ultimate events have occurrence — without events there is no need for space;
(5) Causality comes into existence when the first event-chain is formed : prior to that, there is no causality, only random emergence of events from wherever events come from (Note 5).

What happens once an event-chain has been formed? Does the Occurrence Function remain ≥ 1 or does it decline again? There are two reasons why the Probability Occurrence Function probably (sic) does at some stage decline, one theoretical and one observational. Everything in UET, except K0 the Origin, is finite ─ and K0 should be viewed as being neither finite nor infinite, ‘para-finite’ perhaps. Therefore, no event can keep on repeating indefinitely : all event-chains must eventually terminate, either giving rise to different event-chains or simply disappearing back into the Void from which they emerged. This is the theoretical reason.
Now for the observational reason. As it happens, we know today that the vast majority of ‘elementary particles’ are very short-lived and since all particles are, from the UET point of view, relatively persistent event-chains or event-clusters, we can conclude that most event-chains do not last for very long. On the other hand, certain particles like the proton and the neutrino are so long-lasting as to be virtually immortal. The cause of ‘spontaneous’ radio-active decay is incidentally not known, indeed the process is considered to be completely random (for a particular particle) which is tantamount to saying there is no cause. This is interesting since it shows that randomness re-emerges and re-emerges where it was least expected. I conceive of event-chains that have lost their causal bonding dwindling away in much the same way as they began only in reverse. There is a sort of pleasing symmetry here : randomness gives rise to order which gives rise to randomness once more.
There is the question of how we are to conceive the ‘build up’ of probability in the occurrence function : exactly where does this occur? Since this process has observable effects, it is more than a mathematical fiction. One could imagine that this slow build-up, and eventual weakening and fading away, takes place in a sort of semi-real domain, a hinterland between K0 and K1 the physical universe. I note this as K01.
I am incidentally perfectly serious in this suggestion. Some such half-real domain is required  to cope, amongst many other things, with the notorious ‘probabilities’ — more correctly ‘potentialities’ — of the Quantum Wave Function. The notion of a semi-real region where ‘semi-entities’ gradually become more and more real, i.e. closer to finalization, is a perfectly respectable idea in Hinayana Buddhism ─ many  authors speak of 17 stages in all,  though I am not so sure about that. Western science and thought generally has considerable difficulty coping with phenomena that are clearly neither completely actual nor completely imaginary (Note 6); this is so because of the dogmatic philosophic materialism that we inherit from the Enlightenment and Newtonian physics. Physicists generally avoid confronting the issue, taking refuge behind a smoke-screen of mathematical abstraction.                                                                SH  8/6/14

Note 1  This tends to be the Eastern view : neither the Chinese nor the Hindus seem to have felt much need for a purposeful all-powerful creator God. For the Chinese, there were certain patterns and trends to be discerned but nothing more, a ceaseless flux with one situation engendering another like the hexagrams of the Y Ching. Consulting the Y Ching involves a chance event, the fall of the yarrow sticks that the consultant throws at random. Whereas in divination chance is essential, in science every vestige of randomness is eliminatedas much as is humanly possible.
For the Hindus, the universe was not an artefact as it was for Boyle who likened it to the Strasbourg clock : it was a ‘dance’, that of Shiva. This is a very different conception since dances do not have either meaning or purpose apart from display and self-gratification. Also, although they may be largely repetitive, the (solitary) dancer is at liberty to introduce new movements at any moment.
As for the Buddhists, there was never any question of the universe being created : the emergence of the physical world was regarded as an accident with tragic consequences.

Note 2 “Needham tells of the irony with which Chinese men of letters of the eighteenth century greeted the Jesuits’ announcement of the triumphs of modern science. The idea that nature was governed by simple, knowable laws appeared to them as a perfect example of anthropomorphic foolishness. (…) If any law were involved [in the harmony and regularity of phenomena] it would be a law that no one, neither God nor man, had ever conceived of. Such a law would also have to be expressed in a language undecipherable by man and not be a law established by a creator conceived in our own image.”
Prigogine, Order out of Chaos p. 48 

Note 3  Contemporary Chaos Theory deals with systems that are deterministic in principle but unpredictable in practice. This is because of their sensitive dependence on initial conditions which can never be known exactly. True chaos cannot be modelled by Chaos Theory so-called. 

Note 4 See pages 12-14 of Rupert Sheldrake’s remarkable book, The Presence of the Past where he quotes this passage, likewise that from Nietzsche. Dr Sheldrake has perhaps contributed more than any other single person to the re-emergence of the ‘randomness/order’ paradigm. In his vision, ‘eternal physical laws’ are essentially reduced to habits and the universe as a whole is viewed as in some sense a living entity. “The cosmos now seems more like a growing and developing organism than like an eternal machine. In this context, habits may be more natural than immutable laws” ( Sheldrake, The Presence of the Past, Introduction).
  Stefan Wolfram also adopts a similar philosophic position, believing as he does that not only can randomness give rise to complex order, but must eventually do so. Both thinkers would probably concur with the idea that “systems with complex behaviour in nature must be driven by the same kind of essential spirit as humans” (Wolfram, A New Kind of Science p. 845)

Note 5.  This idea that causality comes into existence when, and only when, the first event-chains are formed, may be compared to the Buddhist doctrine that ‘karma’ ceases in nirvana, or rather that nirvana is to be defined as the complete absence of karma. Karma literally means ‘activity’ and there is no activity in the Void, or K0. Ultimate events are the equivalent of the Buddhist dharma ─ actually it should be dharmas plural but I cannot bring myself to write dharmas. Reality is basically composed of three ‘entities’, nirvana, karma, dharma, whose equivalents within Ultimate Event Theory are K0 or the Void, Causality (or Dominance) and Ultimate Events. All three are required for a description of phenomenal reality because the ultimate events must come from somewhere and must cohere together if they are to form ‘objects’, the causal force providing the force of cohesion. There is no need to mention matter nor for that matter (sic) God.

Note 6   “ ‘The possible’ cannot interact with the real: non-existent entities cannot deflect real ones from their paths. If a photon is deflected, it must have been deflected by something, and I have called that thing a ‘shadow photon’. Giving it a name does not make it real, but it cannot be true that an actual event, such as the arrival and detection of a tangible photon, is caused by an imaginary event such as what that photon ‘could have done’ but did not do. It is only what really happens that can cause other things really to happen. If the complex motions of the shadow photon in an interference experiment were mere possibilities that did not in fact take place, then the interference phenomena se see would not, in fact, take place.”       David Deutsch, The Fabric of Reality pp.48-9

Comment by SH
 : This is fine but I cannot go along with Deutsch’s resolution of the problem by having an infinite number of different worlds, indeed I regard it as crazy.

 


”There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken in the flood, leads on to fortune”
                                    Shakespeare, Julius Caesar

Not-Doing is often confused with ‘doing nothing’ and though it can indeed be effective to abstain from doing something if and when your opponent expects you to do something (the ancient Chinese manual “The Art of War” recommends such behaviour), this is not the usual meaning of the Taoist term ‘Not-Doing’. As I understand it, the principle goes like this.
A man can lift vast weights by setting up some sort of system of gears and pulleys which get natural forces, far stronger than human muscles, to ‘do the work’ for him or her. People knew about leverage long before it was studied systematically: nonetheless it is worthwhile understanding the principles (first elucidated by Archimedes)  for then they can be extended much further and applied in unlikely situations. The central tenet of the ‘science’ I am constructing, Ultimate Event Theory, is that reality is not made up of things but of events and these events are usually bound together in chains and clusters. The power of event-chains is immense : indeed nuclear or gravitational forces are no more and no less than examples of physical event-chains which have stabilised and become persistent, i.e. the same sort of behaviour repeats endlessly. There is no essential difference between biological or human event-chains and physical event-chains : the chief difference is that physical ones are so stable and predictable that they are considered to obey ‘laws of Nature’.
The technique of ‘Not-Doing’ consists in adroitly interfering in certain event-chains to achieve specific goals  : human beings already know how to do this in physical matters, hence the explosion of science and technology. However, their attitude towards the patterns of their own existences is usually passive and defeatist: they do not believe it to be possible to manipulate their own life-sequences to their advantage except in completely trivial ways (if that). But by  inserting oneself into a particular situation or configuration at the appropriate place and moment (and only at the appropriate place and moment), one can “get events to work for you” so to speak – though in fact they are not working for you, simply continuing to function ‘normally’. This is generally thought to be impossible because reality is viewed either as strictly deterministic, or, alternatively, as totally unpredictable and haphazard.  So either way you lose because you are powerless, or feel yourself to be.
I sometimes think of ‘life’ as being like loggers travelling downstream on log-rafts  : they are carried along at breakneck speed by forces far greater than themselves. If they are being taken into a backwater, they have the possibility of jumping onto another log-raft  and, in so doing, not only can they use the momentum of the other log-raft but, by jumping across, they impart a slight deviation to the course of the second log which may be enough to initiate vast changes. They can be taken much farther than would be possible by ‘Doing’, i.e. by deliberate action, since they are using to their advantage natural forces. The person who is able to manipulate events to his or her advantage will be successful (whether famous or not, that depends on whether he wants it), the person who has no feel for or control over events will be consigned to mediocrity and, probably, dissatisfaction also. In the past people talked of ‘Providence’ (as Cromwell did) but ‘Providence’ is in reality something just as ‘mechanical’ as atmospheric pressure or the behaviour of liquids. ‘Event-control’ has nothing necessarily to do with morality or religion : it is a technique that can be developed and rests on certain theoretical principles. These principles include but go beyond the ‘gut instincts’ and ‘rules of thumb’ of successful businessmen and in particular imply a very different sort of physics to the present one.
The technique, however, is both dangerous and tricky. Dangerous because one can all too easily be swept away by forces beyond one’s control; tricky because it is necessary to initially ‘do’ something, show will, but then ‘take oneself out of the picture’, let abstract forces do the work for you. The Tao Te Ching is always going on about “not interfering”, “going with the flow” and so forth – but this book, perhaps deliberately, does not stress that initially will and decision are required : passivity by itself is not enough. Very few people are able to combine determination and fluidity, able to work with determination for a goal but be ready to seize chance opportunities.     SH

Comment by Keith Walton:

A canoeist friend tells me that, when a canoe is being carried downstream, the canoeist is only in control if he is paddling so that it is travelling faster than the stream. If he is just being carried along, he’s not in control, and can’t direct the craft. So his paddling creates the ‘continuous moment’ in which he can, at any time, intervene, and direct the canoe.
This seems analogous to (or the same as?) the martial arts’ practitioner’s constant work, even when apparently ‘doing nothing’, to be always and continuously ‘in the moment’, so that when the ‘gap in the action’ appears, into which he can insert his action, that minimal action can produce devastating results. His work is not in the action, but in a) his history of learning and practice, so he knows ‘instinctively’ what action is appropriate,  and b) in being constantly ready to act.

Sebastian Hayes adds:

This is an extremely important point. I had previously seen event strategies as being either/or, either you use force and impose yourself to get results, or you make yourself directionless and ‘go with the flow’. This what the Tao Te Ching would call the methods of Doing  and Not-Doing and the Tao Te Ching is emphatic that the superior strategy is ‘Not-Doing’. There are, however, dangers in just drifting and seeing where it takes you : the method is too passive.
Sun Tzu, the Taoist author of The Art of War states “Skilful warriors are able to allow the force of momentum to seize victory for them without exerting their strength”. Yes, many commanders have indeed conducted successful campaigns where they systematically avoided pitched battles : this is how Fabius Maximus Cunctator managed to wear down the mighty Hannibal, one of the greatest military commanders of all time. Also, Mao Tse Tung initially  always avoided outright confrontation with Chiang-kai-chek’s numerically superior Nationalist armies and spent most of his time apparently ‘running away’. However, if a commander or individual is never prepared to fight, and this gets out (which it will do inevitably), he will be wiped out. The canoeist analogy seems extremely apt here. Most of the work is being done by the current but, if the canoeist is not exerting a certain amount of force, enough to just keep ahead, his craft will capsize or he will be taken onto the rapids.
The path of systematic ‘Not-Doing’ is thus only to be recommended to persons who are already committed to an active life-style and who cannot afford to be completely passive. Castaneda’s  Don Juan is always repeating to his pupil that ‘seeing’ is no good unless one also “has the mood of a warrior’. Why so? Because the warrior is in a profession where he simply cannot afford to be completely passive. It is noteworthy that the man credited with the astounding statement, “No man rises so high as he who does not know where he is going” was a cavalry officer, namely Oliver Cromwell. Probably the reason the Tao Te Ching emphasizes the ‘passive’ aspect of successful strategy was because China was going through a period of upheaval at the time, the ‘Warring States Period’.
Keith added that this point explains why and how the Sixties ‘cultural revolution’ in the West went wrong : people simply drifted with the current, “Drop Out, Tune in and Turn on” as Timothy Leary, the LSD guru put it. The Sixties generation omitted to make sure they were slightly ahead of the current with ultimately  disastrous consequences.   I added that ‘seizing the occasion’ may well correspond to suddenly ceasing to exert this slight extra force — a sort of ‘Not-Doing of Not-Doing’. In such a case you really do ‘drop out’ for the current speeds on without you. If where you find yourself is  where you want to be, this is exactly right : you only have to swim to the side and climb up the bank.
To sum up: Being ‘in the flow’ is dangerous unless you keep very slightly ahead of the currrent, and remain on the qui vive, ready to seize the propitious moment.       SH 

 

 

                 “There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken in the flood, leads on to fortune”

Shakespeare, Julius Caesar

In a previous post I suggested that the three most successful non-hereditary ‘power figures’ in Western history were Cromwell, Napoleon and Hitler. Since none of the three had advantages that came by birth, as, for example, Alexander the Great or Louis XIV did, the meteoric rise of these three persons suggests either very unusual abilities or very remarkable ‘luck’.
From the viewpoint of Eventrics, success depends on how well a particular person fits the situation and there is no inherent conflict between ‘luck’ and ability. Quite the reverse, the most important ‘ability’ that a successful politician, military commander or businessman can have is precisely the capacity to handle events, especially unforeseen ones. In other words success to a considerable extent depends on how well a person handles his or her ‘good luck’ if and when it occurs, or how well a person can transform ‘bad luck’ into ‘good luck’. Whether everyone gets brilliant opportunities that they fail to seize one doubts but, certainly, most of us are blind to the opportunities that do arise and, when not blind, lack the self-confidence to seize such an offered ‘chance’ and turn it to one’s advantage.
The above is hardly controversial though it does rule out the view that everything is determined in advance, or, alternatively, the exact opposite, that ‘more or less anything can happen at any time anywhere’. I take the commonsense view that there are certain tendencies that really exist in a given situation. It is, however, up to the individual to reinforce or make use of such ‘event-currents’ or, alternatively, to ignore them and, as it were, pass by on the other side like the Levite in the Parable of the Good Samaritan. The driving forces of history are not people but events and ‘event dynamics’; however, this does not reduce individuals to the status of puppets, far from it. Either through instinct or correct analysis (or a judicious mixture of the two) the successful person identifies a ‘rising’ event current, gets with it if it suits him or her, and abandons it abruptly when it ceases to be advantageous. This is easy enough to state, but supremely difficult to put into practice. Everyone who speculates on the Stock Exchange knows that the secret of success is no secret at all : it consists in buying  when the price of stock is low but just about to rise and selling when the price is high but just about to fall. For one Soros, there are a hundred thousand or maybe a hundred million ‘ordinary investors’ who either fail entirely or make very modest gains.
But why, one might ask, is it advantageous to identify and go with an ‘event trend’ rather than simply decide what you want to do and pursue your objective off your own bat? Because the trend will do a good deal of the work for you : the momentum of a rising trend is colossal, indeed for a while, seems to be unstoppable. Pit yourself against a rising trend and it will overwhelm you, identify yourself with it and it will take you along with a force equivalent to that of a million individuals. If you can spot coming trends accurately and go with them, you can succeed with only moderate intelligence, knowledge, looks, connections, what have you.

Is charisma essential for success?

It is certainly possible to succeed spectacularly without charisma since Cardinal Richelieu, the most powerful man in the France and Europe of his day, had none whereas Joan of Arc who had plenty had a pitifully short career. Colbert, finance minister of Louis XIV is another example; indeed, in the case of ministers it is probably better not to stick out too much from the mass, even to the extent of appearing a mediocrity.
Nonetheless, Richelieu and Colbert lived during an era when it was only necessary to obtain the support of one or two big players such as kings or popes, whereas, in a democratic era, it is necessary to inspire and fascinate millions of ‘ordinary people’. No successful modern dictator lacked charisma : Stalin, Mao-tse-tong, Hitler all had plenty and this made up for much else. Charisma, however, is not enough, or not enough if one wishes to remain in power : to do this, an intuitive or pragmatic grasp of the behaviour of event patterns is a sine qua non and this is something quite different from charisma.

Hitler as failure and mediocrity

Many historians, especially British, are not just shocked but puzzled by Hitler ─ though less now than they were fifty years ago. For how could such an unprepossessing individual, with neither looks, polish, connections or higher education succeed so spectacularly? One British newspaper writer described Hitler, on the occasion of his first big meeting with Mussolini, as looking like “someone who wanted to seduce the cook”.
Although he had participated in World War I and shown himself to be a dedicated and brave ‘common soldier’, Hitler never had any experience as a commander on the battlefield even at the level of a platoon ─ he was a despatch runner who was told what to do (deliver messages) and did it. Yet this was the man who eventually got control of the greatest military machine in history and blithely disregarded the opinions of seasoned military experts, initially with complete success. Hitler also proved to be a vastly successful public speaker, but he never took elocution lessons and, when he started, even lacked the experience of handling an audience that an amateur  actor or stand-up comedian possesses.
Actually, Hitler’s apparent disadvantages proved to be more of a help than a hindrance once he had  begun to make his mark, since it gave his adversaries and rivals the erroneous impression  that he would be easy to manipulate and outwit. Hitler learned about human psychology, not by reading learned tomes written by Freud and Adler, but by eking out a precarious living in Vienna as a seller of picture postcards and sleeping in workingmen’s hostels. This was learning the hard way which, as long as you last the course (which the majority don’t), is generally the best way.
It is often said that Hitler was successful because he was ruthless. But ruthlessness is, unfortunately, not a particularly rare human trait, at any rate in the lower levels of a not very rich society. Places like Southern Italy or Colombia by all accounts have produced and continue to produce thousands or tens of thousands of exceedingly ruthless individuals, but how many ever get anywhere? At the other end of the spectrum, one could argue that it is impossible to be a successful politician without a certain degree of ruthlessness ─ though admittedly Hitler took it to virtually unheard of extremes. Even ‘good’ successful political figures such as Churchill were ruthless enough to happily envisage dragging neutral Norway into the war (before the Germans invaded), to authorise the deliberate bombing of civilian centres and even to approve in theory the use of chemical weapons. Nor did de Gaulle bother unduly about the bloody repercussions for the rural population that the activities of partisans would inevitably bring  about. Arguably, if people like Churchill and de Gaulle had not had a substantial dose of ‘ruthlessness’ (aka ‘commitment’), we would have lost the war long before the Americans ever got involved  ─ which is not, of course, to put such persons on a level with Hitler and Stalin.
To return to Hitler. Prior to the outbreak of WWI, Hitler, though by all accounts  already quite as ruthless and opinionated as he subsequently proved himself to be on a larger arena, was a complete failure. He had a certain, rather conventional, talent for pencil drawing and some vague architectural notions but that is about it. Whether Hitler would or could have made a successful architect, we shall never know since he was refused entry twice by the Viennese School of Architecture. He certainly retained a deep interest in the subject and did succeed in spotting and subsequently promoting an architect of talent, Speer. But there is no reason to think we would have heard of Hitler if he had been accepted as an architectural student and subsequently articled to a Viennese firm of Surveyors and Architects.
As for public speaking, Hitler didn’t do any in his Vienna pre-war days, only discovering his flair in Munich in the early twenties. And although Hitler enlisted voluntarily for service at the outbreak of  WWI, he was for many years actually a draft-dodger wanted for national service by Austria, his country of birth. Hardly a promising start for a future grand military strategist.

Hitler’s Decisive Moment : the Beer Hall Putsch

Hitler did, according to the few accounts we have by people who knew him at the time, have boyhood dreams of one day becoming a ‘famous artist’ — but what adolescent has not? Certainly, Hitler did not, in  his youth and early manhood, see himself as a future famous political or military figure, far from it. Even when Hitler started his fiery speeches about Germany’s revival and the need for strong government, he did not at first cast himself in the role of ‘Leader’. On the contrary, it would seem that awareness of his own mission as saviour of the German nation came to him gradually and spasmodically. Indeed, one could argue that it was only after the abortive Munich Beer-Hall putsch that Hitler decisively took on this role : it was in a sense thrust on him.
The total failure of this rather amateurish plot to take over the government of Bavaria by holding a gun to the governor’s face and suchlike antics turned out to be the turning-point of his thinking, and of his life. In Quattrocento Italy it was possible to seize power in such a way ─ though only the Medici with big finance behind them really succeeded on a grand scale  ─ and similar coups have succeeded in modern Latin American countries. But in an advanced industrial country like Germany where everyone had the vote, such methods were clearly anachronistic. Even if Hitler and his supporters had temporarily got control of Munich, they would easily have been put down by central authority : they would have been seven day wonders and no more. It was this fiasco that decided Hitler to obtain power via the despised ballot box rather than the more glamorous but outmoded methods of an Italian condottieri.
The failed Beer-hall putsch landed Hitler in court and, subsequently in prison; and most people at the time thought this would be the end of him. However, Hitler, like Napoleon before him in Egypt after the destruction of his fleet, was a strong enough character not to be brought  down by the disaster but, on the contrary, to view it as a golden opportunity. This is an example of the ‘law’ of Eventrics that “a disadvantage, once turned into an advantage, is a greater advantage than a straightforward advantage”.
What were the advantages of the situation? Three at least. Firstly, Hitler now had a regional and soon a national audience for his views and he lost no time in making the court-room a speaker’s platform with striking success. His ability as a speaker was approaching its zenith : he had the natural flair and already some years of experience. Hitler was given an incredibly  lenient sentence and was even at one point thanked by the judge for his informative replies concerning Germany’s recent history! Secondly, while in prison, Hitler had the time to write Mein Kampf which, given his lax, bohemian life-style, he would probably have never got round to doing  otherwise. And his court-room temporary celebrity meant the book was sure to sell if written and published rapidly.
Thirdly, and perhaps most important of all, the various nascent extreme Right groups made little or no headway with the ‘leader’ in prison which confirmed them in the view that  Hitler was indispensable. Once out of prison, he found himself without serious competitors on the Right and his position stronger than ever.
But the most important outcome was simply the realization that the forces of the State were far too strong to be overthrown by strong-arm tactics. The eventual break with Röhm and the SA was an inevitable consequence of Hitler’s fateful decision to gain power within the system rather than by openly opposing it.

Combination of opposite abilities

As a practitioner of Eventrics or ‘handler of events’, Hitler held two trump cards that are rarely dealt to the same individual. Firstly, even though his sense of calling seems to have come relatively late, by the early nineteen-thirties he was entirely convinced that he was a man of destiny. He is credited with the remarkable statement, very similar to one made by Cromwell, “I follow the path set by Providence with the precision and assurance of a sleepwalker”. It was this messianic side that appealed to the masses of ordinary people, and it was something that he retained right up to the end. Even when the Russian armies were at the gates of Berlin, Hitler could still inspire people who visited him in the Bunker. And Speer recounts how, even  at Germany’s lowest ebb, he overheard (without being recognized) German working people in a factory repeating like a mantra that “only Hitler can save us now”.
However, individuals who see themselves as chosen by the gods, usually fail because they do not pay sufficient attention to ordinary, mundane technicalities. Richelieu said that someone who aims at high power should not be ashamed to concern himself with trivial details  ─ an excellent remark. Napoleon has been called a ‘map-reader of genius’ and to prepare for the Battles of Ulm and Austerlitz, he instructed Berthier “to prepare a card-index showing every unit of the Austrian army, with its latest identified location, so that the Emperor could check the Austrian order of battle from day to day” (Note 1). Hitler had a similar capacity for attention to detail, supported by a remarkable memory for facts and figures — there are many records of him reeling off correct data about the range of guns and the populations of certain regions to his amazed generals.
This ‘combination of contraries’ also applies to Hitler as a statesman. Opponents and many subsequent historians could never quite decide whether Hitler, from the beginning, aimed for world domination, or whether he simply drifted along, waiting to see where events would take him. In reality, as Bullock rightly points out, these contradictions are only apparent : “Hitler was at once fanatical and cynical, unyielding in his assertion of will power and cunning in calculation” (Bullock, Hitler and the Origins on the Second World War). This highly unusual combination of two opposing tendencies is the key to Hitler’s success. As Bullock again states, “Hitler’s foreign policy… combined consistency of aim with complete opportunism in method and tactics. (…) Hitler frequently improvised, kept his options open to the last possible moment and was never sure until he got there which of several courses of action he would choose. But this does not alter the fact that his moves followed a logical (though not a predetermined) course ─ in contrast to Mussolini, an opportunist who snatched eagerly at any chance that was going, but never succeeded in combining even his successes into a coherent policy” (Bullock, p. 139).
Certainly, sureness of ultimate aim combined with flexibility in day to day management is a near infallible recipe for conspicuous success. Someone who merely drifts along may occasionally obtain a surprise victory but will be unable to build on it; someone who is completely rigid in aim and means will not  be able to adapt to, and take advantage of, what is unforeseen and unforeseeable. Clarity of goal and unshakeable conviction is the strategic part of Practical Eventrics while the capacity to respond rapidly to the unforeseen belongs to the tactical side.

Why did Hitler ultimately fail?

Given the favourable political circumstances and Hitler’s unusual abilities, the wonder is, not that he lasted as long as he did, but that he eventually failed. On a personal level, there are two reasons for this. Firstly, Hitler’s racial theories, while they originally helped him to power, eventually proved much more of a drawback than an advantage. For one thing, since Hitler regarded ‘Slavs’ as inferior, this conviction unnecessarily alienated large populations in Eastern Europe, many of whom were originally favourable to German intervention since they had had enough of Stalin. Moreover, Hitler allowed ideological and personal prejudices to influence his choice of subordinates : rightly suspicious of the older Army generals but jealous of brilliant commanders like von Manstein and Guderian, he ended up with a General Staff of supine mediocrities.
Secondly, Hitler, though he had an excellent intuitive grasp of overall strategy, was a poor tactician. Not only did he have no actual experience of command on the battlefield but, contrary to popular belief, he was easily rattled and unable to keep a clear head in emergencies.
Jomini considered that “the art of war consists of six distinct parts:

  1. Statesmanship in relation to war
  2. Strategy, or the art of properly directing masses upon the theatre of war, either for defence or invasion.
  3. Grand Tactics.
  4. Logistics, or the art of moving armies.
  5. Engineering ─ the attack and defence of frotifications.
  6. Minor tactics.”
    Jomini, The Art of War p. 2

Hitler certainly ticks the first three boxes. But certainly not (4), Logistics. Hitler tended to override his highly efficient Chief of General Staff, Halder, whereas Napoleon always listened carefully to what Halder’s equivalent, Berthier, had to say. According to Liddell Hart, the invasion of Russia failed, despite the high quality of the commanders and fighting men, because of an error in logistics.
“Hitler lost his chance of victory because the mobility of his army was based on wheels instead of on tracks. On Russia’s mud-roads its wheeled transport was bogged when the tanks could move on. If the panzer forces had been provided with tracked transport they could have reached Russia’s vital centres by the autumn in spite of the mud” (Liddel-Hart, History of the Second World War )  On such mundane details does the fate of empires and even of the world often depend.
As for (5), the attack on fortifications, it had little importance in World War II though the long-drawn out siege of Leningrad exhausted resources and troops and should probably have been abandoned. Finally, on (6), what Jomini calls ‘minor tactics’, Hitler was so poor as to be virtually incompetent. By ‘minor tactics’, we should understand everything relating to the actual movement of troops on the battlefield (or battle zone) ─ the area in which Napoleon and Alexander the Great were both supreme.  Hitler was frequently indecisive and vacillating as well as nervy, all fatal qualities for a military commander.
On two occasions, Hitler made monumental blunders that cost him the war. The first was the astonishing decision to hold back the victorious tank units just as they were about to sweep into Dunkirk and cut off the British forces. And the second was Hitler’s rejection of  Guderian’s plan for a headlong drive towards Moscow before winter set in; instead, following conventional Clausewitzian principles,  Hitler opted for a policy of encirclement and head-on battle. Given the enormous man-power of the Russians and their scorched earth policy, this was a fatal decision.
Jomini, as opposed to Clausewitz, recognized the importance of statesmanship in the conduct of a war, something that professional army officers and even commanders are prone to ignore. Whereas Lincoln often saw things that his generals could not, and on occasion successfully overrided them  because he had a sounder long-term view, Hitler, a political rather than a military man, introduced far too much statesmanship into the conduct of war.
It has been plausibly argued, especially by Liddel Hart, that the decision to halt the tank units before Dunkirk was a political rather than a military decision. Blumentritt, operational planner for General Rundstedt, said, at a later date, that “the ‘halt’ had been called for more than military reasons, it was part of a political scheme to make peace easier to reach. If the British Expeditionary Force had been captured at Dunkirk, the British might have felt that their honour had suffered a stain which they must wipe out. By letting it escape, Hitler hoped to conciliate them” (Liddel Hart, History of the Second World War I p. 89-90). This did make some kind of sense : a rapid peace settlement with Britain would have wound up the Western campaign and freed Hitler’s hands to advance eastwards which had seemingly always been his intention. However, if this interpretation is correct, Hitler made a serious miscalculation, underestimating Britain’s fighting spirit and inventiveness.

Hitler’s abilities and disabilities

It would take us too far afield from the field of Eventrics proper to go into the details of Hitler’s political, economic and military policies. My overall feeling is that Hitler was a master in the political domain, time and again outwitting his internal and external rivals and enemies, and that he had an extremely good perception of Germany’s economic situation and what needed to be done about it. But he was an erratic and often incapable military commander ─ for we should not forget that, following the resignation of von Brauchitsh, Hitler personally supervised the entire conduct of the war in the East (and everywhere else eventually). This is something like the reverse of the conventional assessment of Hitler so is perhaps worth explaining.
Hitler is credited with the invention of Blitzkrieg, a new way of waging war and, in particular, with one of the most successful campaigns in military history, the invasion of France, when the tank units moved in through the Ardennes, thought to be impassible. The original idea was in reality not Hitler’s but von Manstein’s (who got little credit for it) though Hitler did have the perspicacity to see the merits of this risky and unorthodox plan of attack which the German High Command unanimously rejected. It is also true that Hitler took a special interest in the tank and does seem to have some good ideas regarding tank design.
However, Hitler never seems to have rid himself completely of the conventional Clausewitzian idea that wars are won by large-scale confrontations of armed men, i.e. by modern ‘pitched battles’. Practically all (if not all) the German successes depended on surprise, rapidity of execution and artful manoeuvre ─ that is, by precisely the avoidance of direct confrontation. Thus the invasion of France, the early stages of the invasion of Russia, Rommel in North Africa and so on. When the Germans fought it out on a level playing field, they either lost as at Al Alamein or achieved ‘victories’ that were so costly as to be more damaging than defeats as in the latter part of the Russian campaign.        Hitler was in fact only a halfway-modernist in military strategy. “The school of Fuller and Basil Liddel Hart [likewise Guderian and Rommel] moved away from using manoeuvre to bring the enemy’s army to battle and destroy it. Instead, it [the tank] should be used in such a way as to numb the enemy’s command, control, and communications and bring about victory through disintegration rather than destruction” (Messenger, Introduction to Jomini’s Art of War).

As to the principle of Bitzkrieg (Lightning War) itself, though it doubtless appealed to Hitler’s imagination, it was in point of fact forced on him by economic necessity : Germany just did not have the resources to sustain a long war. It was make or break. And much the same went for Japan.
Hitler’s duplicity and accurate reading of his opponents’ minds in the realm of politics needs no comment. But what is less readily recognized is how well he understood the general economic situation. Hitler had doubtless never read Keynes ─ though his highly capable Economics Minister, Schacht, doubtless had. But with his talent for simplification, Hitler realized early on that Germany laboured under two crippling economic disadvantages : she did not produce enough food for her growing population and, as an industrial power, lacked indispensable natural resources especially oil and quality iron-ore. So where to obtain  these and a lot more essential  items? By moving eastwards, absorbing the cereal-producing areas of the Ukraine and getting hold of the oilfields of the Caucasus. This was the policy exposed to the German High Command in the so-called ‘Hossbach Memorandum’ to justify the invasion of Russia to an unenthusiastic general staff.
The policy of finding Lebensraum in the East was based on a ruthless but shrewd and essentially correct analysis of the economic situation in Europe at the time. But precisely because Germany would need even more resources in a wartime situation, victory had to be rapid, very rapid. The gamble nearly succeeded : as a taster, Hitler’s armies  overwhelmed Greece and Yugoslavia in a mere six weeks and at first looked set to do much the same in Russia in three months. Perhaps if Hitler had followed Guderian’s plan of an immediate all-out tank attack on Moscow, instead of getting bogged down in Southern Russia and failing to take Stalingrad, the gamble would actually have paid off.

Hitler: Summary from the point of view of Eventrics

The main points to recall from this study of Hitler as a ‘handler of events’ are the following.

  1. The methods chosen must fit the circumstances, (witness Hitler’s switch to a strategy based on the ballot box rather than the revolver after the Beer-Hall putsch).
  2. An apparent defeat can be turned into an opportunity, a disadvantage into an advantage (e.g. Hitler’s trial after the Beer-hall putsch)
  3. Combining inflexibility of ultimate aim with extreme flexibility on a day-to-day basis is a near invincible combination (Hitler’s conduct of foreign affairs during the Thirties);
  4. It is disastrous to allow ideological and personal prejudices to interfere with the conduct of a military campaign, and worse still to become obsessed with a specific objective (e.g. Hitler’s racial views, his obsession with taking Stalingrad).

 

Cromwell and Providence

In a previous post I suggested that the three most powerful men in Western history who acquired their position other than by inheritance, were Napoleon, Cromwell and Hitler. Of the three, if we judge them over the whole of their careers, Cromwell was undoubtedly the most successful. He started his adult life as an impoverished country squire with no connections at court but ended up as Lord Protector of a country that was already overtaking France and Spain and would soon vie with Holland for world-wide naval and mercantile supremacy. Once put in command of an army, unlike Napoleon and Hitler, Cromwell never lost a battle and he died quietly in his bed not especially bothered by his latter-day unpopularity. It is true that he did not aspire to world domination like Napoleon and Hitler, but this is part of the reason that he succeeded more completely than they did : he cut his coat according to the cloth available while they did not.
But why exactly was he so successful?

The sense of mission

From the standpoint of Eventrics, individuals succeed because they ‘go with the flow of events’. Either consciously or unconsciously, they identify dominant event patterns, or rather patterns that are about to become dominant, and they ‘put their faith in them’, allowing the momentum of the events to do most (but not all) of the work. They must also be quick to change course and dissociate themselves from the onward rush of events when this is no longer to their advantage.
Machiavelli was perhaps the first to state openly (but not the first to believe) that the pursuit and retention of power is a technique that can be learned just like horsemanship or perspective drawing. However, although Machiavelli gives some useful general principles, the technique cannot be taught but must be learned in situ, in the thick of events. In what does it consist? Essentially, in achieving the right mix of self-confidence and reliance on one’s own judgment combined with scrupulous attention to detail, to the day to day drift of unpredictable and uncontrollable event currents. Very few individuals have what it takes to do both. Messianic individuals neglect practical considerations, believing it to be beneath them, while sound technicians lack the breadth of vision and occasional recklessness without which nothing great can be achieved.
Clearly, an individual who believes him or herself to be divinely inspired has a vast advantage over ‘ordinary people’, provided, of course, that he possesses a minimum of technical ability and worldly knowledge. Most people do not know what they want or even what they believe : someone who clearly knows both commands respect, devotion and admiration (also fear). However, most ‘men of mission’ become blinded by their own success as Hitler, Napoleon and even Julius Caesar did alongside a host of lesser figures.

Advantages of the Puritan Mentality 

The Puritan mentality that Cromwell embodied was admirably suited indeed to the challenges and opportunities of the English civil war.       The concept of Providence ─ useful precisely because it was vague ─ was an enormous advance on pagan ideas of ‘fate’ which encourage defeatism, or the rock-hard belief in ‘Divine Right’ such as prevailed in the Royalist camp which encouraged recklessness. Instead of looking for ‘signs’ in the sense of omens and presages, the Puritans tried to discern an underlying ‘logic of events’ which they interpreted as the workings of Providence.
Moreover, the moral earnestness of the Puritan forced him to act, and if his acts were successful this was proof that God was on his side ─ “Duties are ours, events are the Lord’s” as Samuel Rutherford put it concisely. But, on the other hand, since every good Puritan was convinced that he was fallible, failure did not reflect on God, only on man’s faulty reading of the writing on the wall. This provided a useful check on the megalomania to which messianic individuals and movements are prone.
The Puritans in effect had it both ways, hence their success both in England and in the Netherlands (where they victoriously opposed the might of Spain). They picked up on the psychological advantages that come from believing oneself to be guided by God, but were protected by the peculiarities of their belief system from the dual dangers of inactivity (Quietism) and cocksureness (messianism).

Cromwell as ‘God’s Englishman’ 

Cromwell definitely believed that he was guided by God ─ “A divine presence hath gone along with us in the late great transactions of the nation”, he wrote in a letter. Again, on receiving the Scottish command, he wrote to Richard Major, “Truly I have been called unto them [these functions] by the Lord.” And many other people at the time bore witness to the same feeling. John Desborough thought that “It is [God] himself that hath raised you up amongst men, and hath called you to high enjoyments”. Fairfax himself, originally Cromwell’s superior, speaks of “The constant presence and blessing of God that have accompanied him”.
Moreover, this belief in ‘election’ was very widespread : there was nothing at all unusual in the idea that one could be, and indeed should be, guided by the Divine Will. And the Divine Will was for the Puritan, but not the Catholic or even High Church Anglican, directly knowable without the intermediary of priest or monarch. Cromwell, though extraordinary in the degree of his success, could (and did) believe himself to be ‘typical’, to be nothing out of the ordinary except inasmuch as he had, for some inscrutable reason, been given a larger task to fulfil (Note 1).
And the peculiarity of the Protestant, and more specifically Puritan, mentality safeguarded Cromwell from the self-intoxication of, say, the 19th century Mahdi (the victor at Khartoum) who enjoyed as much initial success as Cromwell and was, for a while, believed to be invincible. Almost alone of all dictators and military commanders, Cromwell demonstrates a certain humility and, incredible though it sounds, a seemingly genuine lack of personal ambition ! He really did have’greatness thrust upon him’. A moment after writing that he sees the hand of the Lord in his (Cromwell’s) sudden advancement, he goes on to say that he is “not without assurance that he [God] will enable this poor worn and weak servant to do his will”. This conception of being a ‘servant’ who is without merit in himself is rooted in the peculiarly Puritan (originally Calvinistic) idea that the ‘elect’ are not chosen for their merit but simply because God so pleases.
The permanent feeling of inadequacy which is central to the Puritan mentality, also meant that no one, however high and mighty he might be, would be tempted to ‘rest on his laurels’. And this in turn meant that a military commander or ruler always had to pay as much attention to detail as a village carpenter — as Cromwell indeed did. Cromwell, who trained and personally led the Parliamentarian cavalry was not a dashing glamorous figure like Prince Rupert on the Royalist side. Cromwell trained his cavalry to advance at the trot, not at the gallop, and always to reform in good order whether they broke through the enemy ranks or not. Cromwell also held out for a strictly no nonsense approach to enlistment and advancement ─ “The State in choosing men to serve it, takes no notice of their opinions”. This may seem commonsensical enough today but was well-nigh unheard of in the bigoted seventeenth century and unusual even as late as the latter nineteenth century.

The Extraordinary vs. the Impossible

Given all this, the wonder is, not that Cromwell and his followers, succeeded so well but that Cromwell has had so few imitators. What, then, were the weak points of this apparently unbeatable mixture of self-confidence and humility, grand strategy and careful attention to detail?
The Cardinal de Retz, himself one of the leaders of a movement not unlike the ‘Great Rebellion’, the Fronde, says that it is essential that “resolution should run parallel with judgment” and especially with what he calls ‘heroic judgment’ which “is able to discern the extraordinary from the impossible”. Now, Cromwell was able to make this all-important distinction. Overcoming a Royalist army staffed by experienced officers and backed by powerful foreign powers was certainly extraordinary but, as it appears, not impossible. Even more extraordinary on the psychological level is that a group of men should have dared to try and execute a monarch and have felt no guilt about doing so. And Cromwell’s endless stream of military successes against all comers is certainly out of the ordinary.
Cromwell was, however, able to discern what was, for historical reasons, impossible, namely the creation of a modern egalitarian democratic state. Movements like the Levellers and the Diggers were too much ahead of their time since they called, on the one hand, for a wholesale redistribution of land to all who were prepared to work it and, incredibly, even suggested the creation of a ‘Welfare State’, an idea that did not become a reality anywhere in the world until two and a half centuries later.
The trouble with believing that you are guided by God and that you know God’s Will, is that God is, by definition, all-powerful. He can thus, if He so wishes, bring about not only the extraordinary but also the impossible. This is a very dangerous doctrine for anyone who exercises power to adhere to. One of the most important tenets of the Enlightenment was that even God (in whom Voltaire and the Encyclopaedists believed) was limited by the physical laws of the universe He had created and did not intervene directly in the day to day running of the universe, nor was his intervention needed ─ Newton’s Laws sufficed.
But even the toned-down Protestant vision of a Calvin or a Cromwell was, at bottom, a shaky intellectual edifice: it could explain success and temporary setbacks but could make no sense of disaster. Cromwell, fortunately for him, did not live to see the Restoration. The surviving Puritans were faced not so much with a political and social crisis as a profound psychological one. If success showed that God was on your side, why had the Royalists triumphed? Even given that the Puritans themselves, like the Jews in a similar situation, were fallible and sinful, it remained difficult, if not impossible, to explain why God should seemingly have ‘changed sides’.
From the Restoration on most Non-conformists eschewed politics, and they certainly eschewed the use of force. Many retired, like the Quakers, into Quietism on the one hand while directing their burning need for activity into industrial and commercial channels. The Puritans had failed to bring about a complete social revolution, but they did more or less single-handed bring about the Industrial Revolution since practically all the inventors and forward-looking industrialists from Newcomen to Watt to Darby could be broadly described as ‘Puritans’ in belief and mentality (Note 2).
Since Cromwell, there has been no one who has so successfully combined the two opposing features of a sense of mission and intense practicality (Note 3). Bismarck had the Realpolitik but lacked the messianism, Hitler the messianism but not the rationality and attention to detail at any rate in the military sphere.      SH 

 

Note 1    “There was nothing unusual in the belief which henceforth governed Cromwell’s actions ─ that he was directly guided by the Divine Will. He did not, of course, regard himself as the infallible interpreter of God’s wishes, but he tested his actions no longer by the criticism of his own reason, but by their effectiveness. If he did God’s will, he must succeed; failure meant that the divine contact had somewhere broken down ─ that there had been sin. This it was which gave him his buoyant confidence when things went well, and drove him to an agony of prayer when things went wrong.”
C.V. Wedgwood, Oliver Cromwell

Note 2 Darlington, in his monumental work, The Evolution of Man and Society, singles out 16 individuals as ‘founders of the Scientific Revolution in Britain born between 1620 and 1800’, and 17 individuals as ‘founders of the Industrial Revolution born between 1650 and 1810’.
Of the scientists, only five are described as coming from the ‘gentry’ and only two, Halley and Malthus, gained entrance to an English university after 1662 when a Bill excluded religious non-conformists from places of higher learning. The Quakers weigh in strongly on the science side with Dalton, Young and Davy and field Darby as one of the prime movers of the Industrial Revolution. The steam engine is exclusively a Non-conformist achievement: Newcomen was a Baptist, Savery of Huguenot origin, Watt a Scottish Presbyterian and Trevithick a Methodist.
In conclusion, it would seem that neither the Anglican Church nor Oxford and Cambridge had much to do with either the industrial or scientific revolution in Britain, at any rate prior to the mid nineteenth century. Newton himself was a Unitarian but stifled his doubts though it is said that his suspected non-conformism stopped him from becoming Master of Trinity College, Cambridge. Halley was denied the chair of astronomy at Oxford on religious grounds. Mercifully the Royal Institution after 1800 dropped the religious requirement, thus allowing Davy and Faraday to lecture there.
Interestingly, there is  only one self-avowed atheist in either list, the ironmonger Wilkinson, and I am not quite sure that Darlington was right there.

Note 3 Stalin comes nearest perhaps. Stalin died in his bed after a long reign marked by complete victory over his principal enemy, Trostsky, and an enormous gain of territory for the USSR. But the cost of Russian victory in WWII was very high and Stalin was partly responsible for this because he allowed himself to be outwitted by Hitler. He also made the disastrous error of purging his own army of many of his most experienced and ablest officers for ideological reasons ─ something Cromwell would never have done.

Reputedly, Einstein got the first inklings of his theory of Relativity at the age of sixteen when he asked himself what would happen if one were travelling at the speed of light (Note 1). This is exactly the sort of question an inquisitive adolescent asks himself and doubtless one which, at a slightly later date, the undergraduate coterie composed of Einstein, Besso, Grossmann and Mileva Maric (Einstein’s girl-friend and eventually first wife) debated earnestly in smoke-filled cafés in Zurich. Most people ‘grow up’ and put aside childish things, but Einstein not only continued puzzling over the apparent paradoxes involved in motion at or near the upper limit, but fleshed out his ideas into a testable mathematical theory.
Einstein ‘deduces’ the Lorentz Transformations ─ apparently without being familiar with Lorentz’s work ─ in his 1905 paper On the Electro-dynamics of Moving Particles but the paper makes rather heavy reading today. Later, in Appendix I to the ‘popular’ book Relativity, the Special and the General Theory (1916), he gives a much simpler derivation. These days, hardly anyone bothers about the reasoning involved : the Lorentz Transformations and related formulae must be right, or not very far from the truth, since otherwise a whole bunch of things that we know do work (like nuclear power stations) wouldn’t work. One doubts whether Einstein derived the formulae in the approved step by step logical fashion : he knew where he wanted to get to and worked backwards covering his tracks. This is the usual way important scientific and even mathematical discoveries are made : the rigorous deductive presentation is strictly “for the gallery”, or rather, for the editors of learned journals.
So where did Einstein want to get to? To the second of only two postulates on which the entire Theory of Special Relativity was based, namely that the observed speed of light in a vacuum is always the same irrespective of the relative movement of the source. Using the paraphernalia of co-ordinate Systems, this means that we must in some way make x′/t′ = c when x/t = c, with c constant.

Co-ordinate systems

To pinpoint a particular event we need to be able to answer the double question Where? and When? Traditionally we use a so-called co-ordinate system which, in the simplest case, may be conceived as composed of three directions emanating from a single point ─ an indefinitely expandable room with the bottom left-hand corner fixed as the ‘Origin’. An event occurring at a given time within this room can be located precisely by stating the distances along three axes at right angles to each other, the ‘length’, ‘depth’ and ‘height’ or in mathematics the x, y, z axes. But to specify not just the place but the time at which an event occurred we need a fourth co-ordinate t. A printed page is two-dimensional so we need to cheat a bit, retaining just a single spatial dimension and a single time dimension (Note 2). This simplification is less drastic than it may appear, since we are more often than not only concerned with a single spatial dimension.
A series of causally bonded events can be represented as a collection of dots on a Space/Time graph and if the relative displacement to the left (or right) at each ksana is the same, we get a straight line when we join up the dots. If the space/time displacement ratio is not constant, we do not get a straight line but some sort of ‘curve’. A ‘curve’ shows that we are dealing with an ‘irregular’ event-chain where the causal impulse that produces each next event fluctuates in some way, or the event-chain in question is subject to the influence of a second event-chain (or both possibilities at once). All this is familiar enough : it is the distinction between ‘rest or constant straight-line motion’ and ‘accelerated’ motion.
Einstein’s First Postulate of Special Relativity, that “the laws of
physics take the same form in all inertial frames” implies that a description of a series of events in terms of one particular coordinate system is ‘just as valid’ as a description of the same events in a different coordinate system, provided the second system is conceived as moving with constant velocity v relative to the first (which for simplicity we can consider to be stationary). All we need to do is make sure we ‘translate’ the specifications in one coordinate system into specifications in the second system in an intelligible and consistent manner (Note 3).

The occurrence, or not, of an event does not depend on coordinate systems

It is absolutely essential to grasp (or rather accept) that the occurrence or not of an event, either in UET or in matter-based physics, has absolutely nothing at all to do with coordinate systems or such like man-made constructions. An event either occurs or it does not occur, and if it does occur, it occurs at a specific spot ─ these are all part of the preliminary assumptions of UET. In principle, much the same applies even in ‘traditional’ physics ─ leaving aside for the moment complications introduced by Quantum Mechanics ─ though textbooks tend to be rather evasive on this point.
Whatever coordinate system or other localization method we are using, we need to make sure that we always home in on the same exact spot where such and such an event occurred, or could have occurred. A ‘moving body’ is really a succession of point-like events, but we humans don’t perceive it as such; Einstein’s First Postulate means that, amongst other things, the trajectory or ‘event-line’ of such a (pseudo) body should be the same no matter what localization method we employ. Transferring from one system to another is not too difficult post-Descartes and a very useful trick is to choose two coordinate systems, one ‘moving’ with respect to the other, in such a way that the ‘direction of motion’ of the ‘body’ we are interested in coincides with the x (and the x′) axis (Note 3)

Redundancy of two spatial axes 

What about the other two spatial axes? They are treated as irrelevant since, by hypothesis, nothing is going on in those directions and so we can simply make y′ = y   z′ = z. This just leaves x′ and t′ to bother about.
‘Motion’ is a ‘function of time’ : at different moments ‘in time’ a ‘moving’ body will be at different places. Moreover, in the general case, motion is only a function of time. We do not, for example, usually need to consider things like temperature or air pressure when we are studying motion : if they make a difference this will show up in the equations anyway. On the other hand,since we are dealing with the general case of steady straight-line motion, we need a ‘parametric constant’ v. By ’parametric constant’ I mean a quantity that in any particular set-up does not change but which can and does change in a different set-up. Such a quantity is somewhat in-between a true variable and a true constant : logically speaking the notion is quite subtle but, surprisingly, we find it natural enough which suggests that the brain uses a similar procedure ‘unconsciously’.

Expected form of Transformation formulae 

Mathematically, the above brief discussion means that, algebraically, we would expect the ‘transformed formulae’ x′ and t′ to be expressions in x and t only apart from certain constants and the ‘parametric constant’ v. Moreover, without going into too much detail for the moment (Note 4), we expect both x′ and t′ to be ‘linear’ functions of x and t, i.e. they will not contain powers higher than the first. So we are looking for expressions such as

x′ = Ax – Bt + C1        t′ = Cx – Dt + C 

where A, B, C, D are either pure constants or involve v.
        If we make the two origins coincide at a certain moment in time, we can eliminate the two constants C1 and C2 which makes things easier still.
Now, the simplest ‘transformation’ is simply to ‘add on’ (or ‘take away’) the distance the ‘moving’ frame ∑′ has travelled in t seconds, namely a distance of vt metres (or some other unit of length). If the particular spot where an event occurs is, say, d metres from the origin of ∑ and the event keeps on occurring at the ‘same’ spot this distance d from the origin of the ‘stationary’ frame ∑ remains the same. But if ∑′ is moving at a rate of v metres/second this original distance d will decrease in ∑′ by such and such an amount every second. This gives x′ = x – vt where in effect we are making a = 1, B = v   C1 = 0 in the equation x′ = Ax – Bt + C1  .
We leave aside the t′ co-ordinate for the moment.

Upper Limit the speed of light  

Now, according to traditional electro-magnetic theory light (and all other electro-magnetic radiation such as radio waves, X-rays and so on) travels at a constant speed c. So there are particular values for x and t when x/t = c. Call one pair xc and tc .
So, we have xc /tc = c. According to Einstein’s Second Postulate, whenever we get xc /tc = c we must get xc′ /tc′ = c .  Now, this is impossible using the Galilean Transformations  x′ = x – vt    t′ = t            becausewe obtain for specific values xc and tc (where xc /tc = c)

xc′ /tc′ = (xc – vtc)/tc = (xc /tc ) – (vtc)/tc = c – v 

But xc′ /tc does not equal (c – v) except when except when v = 0. And we don’t need all the paraphernalia of Galilean or Lorentz Transformations to conclude that when there is no relative movement between two co-ordinate systems (expandable boxes) the distances from the corner to where the event occurred are going to be the same.
Obvious though this sounds today, it led Einstein and one or two other people at the time, to seriously entertain the possibility that both time and distance change when there is relative motion between the systems that Einstein calls ‘inertial frames’. So ‘time is not always the same time’ and ‘distance is not always the same distance’ as Newton for one certainly believed.

Stopping the limit being exceeded  

So are there any possible ways of tampering with the equations but keeping the general pattern

x′ = Ax – Bt               t′ = Cx – Dt

while, miraculously, obtaining x′ /t′ = c whenever x/t = c ?
The answer is, yes.
If we use the Transformation Formulae

x′ = γ (x – vt)      y′ = y       z′ = z     t′ = γ(t – vx/c2)

where γ is a constant independent of x and t, it all comes out right.
The proof, or rather verification of the claim, is as follows. Remember that we are concerned for the moment only with those values of x and t for which the distance/time ratio is c ─ for example when x is a little less than 108 metres and t is one second.

x/t = c makes x = ct   and t = x/c for these values of x and t and we can legitimately replace any of the above by their equivalents.
So, assuming these Transformation Rules, and x/t = c

       x/t = γ (x – vt)/γ(t – vx/c2        =   (x – vt)/(t – vx/c2)      =   c2(x – vt)/ (c2t – vx)   
                                                                  = c2x – c2vt)/(c2t – vx)         = c2x – cv(ct)/ (c(ct) – vx)

                        = c2x – cvx)/  (cx – vx)            (using ct = x)

                                                                   = (cx)(c – v)/x(c – v)
=   c
                                                                 = x/t

The Einstein/Lorentz Transformations

But the Transformations

x′ = γ (x – vt)      y′ = y       z′ = z     t′ = γ(t – vx/c2)

would work for any constant value of γ provided it is independent of x and t. If, now, we make

γ = c /√(c2 – v2) = 1/√1 –(v2/c2)

we get some extra spin-offs.

The Einstein/Lorentz Transformations then have the following four very desirable features:

1. Whenever x/t = c   x′ /t′ = c or, as it is more frequently expressed n textbooks, whenever

        (x2 + y2 + z2)/t2 = c2           (x′2 + y′2 + z′2)/t′2 = c2

This is in line with Einstein’s 2nd Special Relativity Postulate.
2. They are linear in x and t, i.e. they don’t involve more complicated functions such as t2, sin t, ex and so forth.
3. They reduce to the normal Galilean Transformations as v/c → 0 , thus explaining why we don’t need them when the speeds we are dealing with are much smaller than c.
4.     The factor γ = 1/√1 –(v2/c2) ‘blows up’ as v gets closer and closer to c which Einstein interprets as demonstrating that no ‘ordinary’ particle or causal physical process can actually attain c, the only exception being light itself. c thus functions as an upper limit to the transfer of energy and/or information (Note 4).

The Time Transformation in UET

So, how does this go over into UET? Not very well, actually. I have had more trouble over this point than any single aspect of the theory since I first sketched it out some thirty-five years ago.

To start with, I am not so much concerned in transforming from one coordinate system to another ─ essential though it is to be able to do this for practical purposes. l wish rather to concentrate attention on individual ‘Event Capsules’ and causally connected sequences of (more or less) identical Event Capsules, i.e. event-chains. Coordinate systems don’t exist in Nature but I believe that ‘event capsules’, or something very much like them, do.
I also prefer a more visual, geometric approach (while recognizing its limitations) and thus opt for expressions like
sin φ = v/c and cos φ = √1 – sin 2 φ) which makes γ = 1/cos φ. But this is not a big deal : certain more approachable textbooks on Relativity do employ diagrams and use trigonometrical aids.
Now, in principle, I should be able to derive the basic formulae of Special Relativity from strictly UET premises. Can I actually do this and if not, why not?

Principle of Constant Occupied Area and its consequences 

The equivalent of Einstein’s first postulate (“that the laws of physics take the same form in all inertial frames”) is the so-called Principle of the Constancy of the ‘Occupied Area’.
In UET, though there is change, there is no such thing as continuous motion. This means that dynamical problems tend to reduce to problems of statics. Two successive causally bonded ultimate events are envisaged as constituting ‘Event Capsules’ (more strictly ‘Transitional Event Capsules’) and Einstein’s ‘Principle of Relativity’ in effect means that the actual dimensions of a specific Transitional Event Capsule are unimportant provided it contains, or could contain, the same event or events. The ‘occupied area’ of the Event Locality remains the same because the spatial and temporal dimensions are inversely proportional : roughly, if space contracts, time must expand.
Any description of an Event Capsule which makes its spatial ‘spread’ v spaces and its temporal dimension one ksana is acceptable irrespective of the value of v which in the simplest case considered here must be a positive integer. We may equally well consider a pair of causally related ultimate events as stretching out over v individual grid-spaces, or alternatively as being confined to a single grid-space of dimension 0 (but the ‘length’ of a ksana will be different in the two descriptions). In the extreme case of the upper attainable limit of c* positions per ksana, we may either consider that we have a very extended spatial ‘spread’ of c* gridpositions with the distance between the emplacements contracted, or that we are dealing with a single Event-capsule of spatial dimension s0. The ‘occupied area’ will be the same because the time-length adapts accordingly, sv tv = constant.
This is very close to the normal Special Relativity treatment which analyzes relative motion in terms of fictitious ‘observers’. Were an observer travelling ‘on a light beam’, he or she would consider himself to be at rest and not notice anything untoward. But for an observer in a ‘stationary’ system, stationary relative to the light beam, things would be rather different and the spatial dimension of, say, a spaceship travelling near the speed of light, would appear contracted in the direction of motion (Note 5).
In UET, I attempt where possible to dispense with ‘observers’. I take a more realistic approach whereby the quantity and order of ultimate events within a particular region of the Event Locality is fixed, is ‘absolute’ if you like and not relative. Any way of adjusting the spatial and temporal inter-event distances is acceptable so long as the extent of the overall region, which reduced for simplicity to a Space/Time ‘Rectangle’, remains the same.
There is also one description of the total occupied region that takes precedence over all the others, namely the ‘Space/Time volume’ when v = 0 . This ‘default volume’ s03 t0 is what the occupied region actually is when there are no other event-chains in the neighbourhood : it is the ‘proper’ Space/Time volume because intrinsic to the specific events and the region they occupy. Such a realistic approach is not possible in physics as it is taught at present because in the latter the key notions of ‘ultimate event’ and ‘occurrence’, which are absolute notions, are absent. Einstein was very close to this viewpoint at one stage but then Minkowski muddled everything with his introduction of the idea of a ‘Space/Time Continuum’.
Now, when we have this same ‘rest capsule’ in an event environment that is not empty, not only are there alternative descriptions of the extent of the occupied region available but, rather more significantly, but there is interference from nearby event-chains (provided they are within causal range). This interference, the real possibility of ‘alternative viewpoints’, ma infests itself as a sort of tension within the ‘rest capsule’, a tension that depends on v. In the extreme case where v = c* , the tension within the single event capsule is the greatest possible : the capsule is, as it were, full to bursting. This is the UET reason why ‘particles’ forcefully resist any attempt to increase their speed relative to a stationary frame when we approach the upper limit ─ and we know that they do this because of numerous experiments (Note 6).

Problems with the time transformation  

In my treatment there is not too much trouble with the spatial part. In effect, in UET, d′ cos φ = (d – vt)  where v < c which is just another way of saying x′ = γ(x – vt) (Diagram). And, as in ‘normal’ physics, I am happy to take on board the ‘Independence of Axes Postulate’ (at least for the moment), i.e. y′ = y, z′ = z also.
So far, so good. Where I make things difficult for myself is by insisting that no actual event-chain has a ‘Space/Time Displacement Ratio’ of c exactly. The original reason for doing this was to avoid having to assume that ‘light’, or its equivalent, is ‘massless’, on the face of it a nonsense since I can’t really see how anything can be anything at all without having some mass (and anyway we know photons have gravitational mass since they are bent when they pass close to massive bodies).
There is thus a difference in UET between the lowest unattainable Space/Time Displacement Ratio, labelled c, and the highest attainable ratio which I label c*. For the simplest case, that of event-chains with a 1/1 Reappearance Rate, i.e. one ultimate event at each successive ksana, this would make
c* = (c –1) in ‘ultimate units’ ─ but for more complex cases c* can get a good deal closer to c.
I take time dilation to be a fact of life, or rather of the Event Locality. The extent of the time dilation depends entirely on the ratio of v to c which is a rational number (proper fraction or zero). The angle sin–1 v/c in effect gives both the space and time ‘settings’ for all systems of event-chains that have a constant displacement ratio of v relative to each other, i.e. a ratio of v grid spaces per ksana or, in ‘absolute units’, v s0 /t0 .
Note that the denominator in v/c is c and not c*. This is deliberate. Since v never actually attains c, the denominator in γ = 1/√1 – v2/c2 never risks becoming ‘infinite’, or, if you like, is always defined. And tan φ does not attain unity, i.e. φ < π/4 for all the cases we are considering.
The dual requirement in UET is to keep what I call the area of the ‘Space/Time Event Rectangle’ constant for all legitimate values of v, while not allowing the ratio of the sides to exceed c*.
The basic equation is sv tv = s0/t0 (the subscript v stands for ‘variable’) where s0 and t0 are constants, the spatial and temporal dimensions of a ‘rest event capsule’, i.e. when v = 0. (I am, of course, not considering the two other spatial dimensions but they will also be s0 for a ‘rest capsule’.)
To keep the overall area constant, we have to have the spatial and temporal ‘sides’ inversely proportional to each other. I define s0 to be a maximum and t0 to be a minimum. If we make tan β = s0/t0 , the ‘angle’ tan–1 s0/t0 is also a universal constant and crucial in defining any particular ‘universe’ (massive interrelated event cluster). I do not see how the value of tan β can be deduced a priori : its value in our part of the Locality will have to be determined by experiment.
For a given setting v/c   (0 < v < c) the basic rectangle will deform, the spatial dimension contracting and the temporal expanding, but keeping the overall area constant. If we have sv = s0 cos φ and tv = t0/cos φ where sin φ = v/c this does the trick.
And, it has been argued in previous posts, the distance d of a spot from a repeating event when everything is at rest, will contract according to the formula d′ cos φ = (d – vt).
So the obvious way to keep the overall area constant in all eventualities is to make t′ = t/cos φ . So what happens to the ratio of one side to the other which, remember, must not ever exceed c*?

We have d′/t′ = (1/cos φ) (d – vt)
                                     (1/cos φ) t

The 1/cos φ parts cancel out so we get

        d′/t′ = (d – vt)/t  = d/t – (vt)/t = d/t – v 

This is OK, since if d/t ≤ c* , d′/t′ which is less then d/t will also not exceed the upper limit of c*.

However, we are not out of the woods yet. ‘Time’ is quantized in UET since there is no such thing as a ‘fraction’ of the ‘rest length’ of a ksana, t0 , a constant fixed once and for all (for any one ‘universe’). So everything has to be taken to the nearest integral value. Any distance d, the number of grid-spaces from a ‘stationary’ event-chain to a particular spot on the Locality, will not be ‘within causal range’ within the ‘space’ of a single ksana if it is c spaces away, or any number > c. So for such distances t must at least be 2 since no value of v, in effect no space contraction, is feasible in such a case. Of course, one could establish some sort of connection, or rather correlation, between arbitrarily distant spots on the Locality, but any such correlation would be entirely abstract if d ≥ c, in particular it cannot be a causal connection.

To find how many ksanas will be required for an event-chain with lateral displacement v spaces per ksana, we divide

d by v and make t the first integer ≥ d/v . For example, if we are looking at a spot c/2 spaces away, and an event-chain has a lateral displacement rate of c/4 s0/t0 only (c/2)/(c/4) = 2 ksanas will be required. In this case an event will occupy the exact spot but this will not normally happen. For v = (c/3) , straight division gives (c/2)/(c/3) = 3/2 which is not an acceptable value for t. We thus have to take the first integer > d/v which in this case is 2.
It is important to realize that, in UET, you cannot just have any old values for v, d and t : all such values are integral for the simplest event-chains which have a 1/1 Re-appearance Rate, and even those that do not, those which allow rational values of v, e.g. 7 spaces every 10 ksanas, never produce irrational values for v while d and t always remain integral.
Things become tricky when we consider a spot exactly c* or c spaces to the right. The distances are perfectly valid since the spots exist and we know the values we require for t in advance, namely a maximum value of 1 for the spot c* (corresponding to v = c*) and a value of 2 for the spot c since it is unattainable within a single ksana.
I have spent endless time messing around with the formula for t and the best I could come up with was the following,

   t′ = (1/cos φ) (t – d/c) where t is the first integer > d/c and v < c

This works in most but not all cases. For example, what if d = c*? Since c*/c < 1 , we have t = 1 as required ─ the causal impulse reaches its goal in a single ksana. However, if we fit this into the formula for d′ we get

d′ = (1/cos φ) (d – vt) = (1/cos φ) (c* – c*) = 0 

        Now d′ cos φ is never zero : this would imply that the distances between possible distinct ultimate events is zero ─ so they would all be merged together, as it were. However, we can make some sense of this formula if we take it to mean that the distances between the emplacements, shrunk to their minimum size, is zero. And this minimum size is not zero but su (the subscript u for ‘ultimate’) and su = s0/c* a small but finite and hopefully one day measurable extent. This value su is the ‘ultimate’ spatial dimension : nothing smaller than this exists, or can exist, at any rate in our ‘universe’ (independent sub-region of the Locality).
It must be borne in mind that the area of the ‘occupied region’ continually adjusts itself, keeping always to integral ‘ultimate’ values much in the way that the pitch of an organ pipe or other blown instrument adjusts to keep the number of nodes of the sound waves integral ─ you cannot have √2 of a pipe length, for example. In extreme cases, such as c* we are obliged perforce to jettison the formulae based on the angle φ and simply state the spatial and temporal distances that we know must be right. If an ultimate event ‘goes the whole distance’ c* in a single bound, using its maximum possible displacement rate, we may imagine the original ‘rest capsule’ as being ‘filled to bursting’. Were there an ultimate event simultaneously at every possible emplacement, the ultimate events would be jammed forcibly together and, since each of them occupies a dimension su , and there are c* of them, we have no inter-event spatial distance left and no room for a possible extra event.
All this doubtless seems tortuous and needlessly complicated to the layman, while being utterly pointless to the traditional physicist who just aplies the SR formulae. But, to me, it is not a waste of space and time (sic) because this is actually the first important issue where I find UET diverges from Special Relativity. Why so? Because, as several readers will have noted, I do not end up with exactly the Einstein/Lorentz Transformation for time. In the latter we have, using my notation,
t′ = (1/cos φ)(t – (sin φ)d/c) or, as you will find it written in textbooks t′ = γ(t – (vx/c2))     γ = 1/√1 – v2/c2

        The extra factor of v/c = sin φ is required if we wish to make d′/t′ exactly equal to c whenever d/t = c. This extra factor is redundantin my treatment since I am stipulating in advance that v < c and I only need to guarantee that d′/t′ ≤ c when d/t ≤ c not that d′/t′ = c exactly. Whether any experiment will differentiate the two treatments at such a precise level remains to be seen.

Ultimate Values for the Space/Time Rectangle

As I cannot state too often, everything in UET is quantized and the basic ‘quanta’ of space and time have fixed extent that hopefully we will soon be able to determine experimentally within certain limits.
So is there a final shape for the ‘Space/Time Rectangle’, one that cannot be exceeded if we are dealing with a causal process? Yes. As stipulated, for a 1/1 reappearance rate (one ultimate event per ksana), this makes c* , the greatest lateral displacement rate, equal to (c – 1). For any such event-chain, we end up with a grotesquely deformed ‘Space/Time Rectangle’ with a minimal spatial length and a maximum ‘time-length’. If we plug the value v = (c–1) into the formula for γ we obtain
1/√(1 – (c–1)2/c2   = c/√c2 – (c–1)2 = c/√(2c –1) ≈ c/√2c = √c/2

I do not know whether this value has any physical significance or utility, but I note it anyway.
If an ultimate event only reappears once every m ksanas, while it displaces itself mc* at each appearance, it will have the same ‘Space/Time Displacement Rate’ of mc*/mc* = m/m = 1 but it will miss out many more positions. And if has a displacement rate of n/m this makes γ =

 

1/√(1 – ((n/m)c)2/c2   = c/√c2 – (n/m)2 c2 = c/√c2(1 –(n/m)2)

               = (1/√1 – n2/m2)   > 1

There may, thus, in UET be all kinds of event-chains that have the same displacement rate (though different reappearance rates) and a great variety of possible event-chains with a great many gaps between successive events (n/m < 1) that come close to the maximum attainable value.

On the other hand, reappearance rates cannot be stretched indefinitely ─ nothing is infinite in UET ─ there will be a maximum possible gap between two successive appearances, probably one involving c or c*.

The dimensions of the ‘ultimate’ Space/Time Rectangle should, however, be calculated, not according to the γ formula which breaks down at or near the upper limit, but simply according to the fixed dimensions of the original rest’ capsule s0 by t0. If there are c* simultaneous ultimate events, and this is the absolute limit, the events occupy (or could occupy) the whole of one dimension of the ‘rest capsule’ which has a fixed volume of s03 where sis a maximum. Now each ‘event kernel’, the exact region where an ultimate event has occurrence has a small but non-zero size which may be noted as su3. Since there are, in the extreme case, c* = (c –1) ultimate events, or emplacements for possible ultimate events, we have so = c su.
What of time? To keep the overall area constant, time has to be stretched to a maximum, or, rather, the gap between two successive ultimate events is the largest possible. Since sv tv = s0 t0 = constant , this means that tmax, or as it is usually written tu , = c* t0. .
        This maximum time dilation should be observable when a ‘particle’ (event-chain) approaches the upper limit. Moreover, no matter what, this maximum time-length can never be exceeded ─ we will not get the ludicrous scenario of the ‘time interval ’ between two screams of someone falling into a black hole becoming infinite.

Deductions and Predictions  

The UET treatment differs from that of SR on several points. The most important being that Different event-chains can have the same maximum displacement ratio. They will differ amongst themselves by the number of spots on the Locality that are missed out, as it were.
A corollary of the above is that different event-chains with the same displacement ratio can have very different ‘penetration’ when confronted with massive event-clusters that block their path. This is the suggested explanation for the known fact that neutrinos are almost impossible to stop, thus to detect : they must have a very ‘open’ reappearance rate while also a displacement rate comparable to that of light (and possibly exceeding it). There seems no reason a priori to assume that the electro-magnetic event-chain is the only event-chain to attain the maximum and it seems to me quite possible that the neutrino, or some other particle, chain is ‘faster’. In UET it might just be possible to “send messages faster than the speed of light” but, certainly, it would not be possible to send them faster than the maximum possible displacement rate for all causal event-chains. There is so much fuss about ‘sending messages’ through empty space only because messaging is a causal process.

Beyond the speed limit? 

What would/could happen if we carried on accelerating a ‘particle’ (event-chain) beyond the maximum, just supposing for a moment that this is technically feasible? According to Einstein, this is not possible because the mass of a particle “becomes infinite” as it approaches the limit ─ though photons regularly travel at this speed. I can only guess what would happen within the context of UET but my guess is that the event-chain in question would simply terminate : to all intents and purposes the ‘particle’ would simply “disappear into thin air” without leaving a trace. There would be no Space/Time explosion, nothing dramatic like that. Would there be any compensatory creation of new particles (event-chains)? One could argue that a certain amount of ‘existence energy’ has been ‘released’ and thus has become available for other purposes. I, however, think it more likely that there would be no new production of events : the chain would terminate and that is that. This is, of course, the worst heresy since it is contrary to the dogma of the Conservation of Mass/Energy.         To accelerate anything to this enormous speed (relative to a stationary event-chain) is likely to be a rare event, so the possibility of the violation of energy conservation would not make too much difference in the short run. I think it very likely that the ‘disappearance’ of event-chains has already been observed in CERN and other accelerators, and has either been dismissed as “experimental error” or not mentioned because too controversial. If and when the possibility of the sudden termination of event-chains, i.e. sudden apparent disappearance of particles without any observed consequence, becomes theoretically acceptable, you will probably see several experimentalists publishing results stashed away in bottom drawers at present, results that show just this happening.

NOTES

 Note 1 “He [Einstein] asked himself what would be the consequences of his being able to move with the speed of light. This question, innocent as it appears, eventually brought him into conflicts and contradiction of enormous depth within the foundations of physics.”      Jeremy Bernstein, Einstein

Note 2 I have suggested elsewhere that what we really need is a three-dimensional lattice which flashes on and off rhythmically and a a spurt of differently coloured light marking an event, and ‘over time’ an event-chain.

 Note 3 This sort of problem comes up all the time in physics and was probably the motivation for Descartes invention of the coordinate system (or something very much like it) in the first place. The Greeks did not have a coordinate system : it would be interesting to know what sort of ‘localization system’ they used in daily life to locate, say, a particular house in Alexandria.

 Note 4   The argument goes something like this.

Suppose that the transformation formulae were not linear, for example that x′ = Ax – Bt2
        Then x′ = 0 marks the position of the origin of the ‘moving’ system ∑′ which gives
0 = Ax – Bt2   or x = (B/A) t2

However, we have already decided we are dealing with a case of constant relative motion of the two systems so x/t ought to be some constant, probably involving v, but not t. But in the above x/t = (B/A)t and (B/A)t is not a constant function (since t appears on the R.H.S.) and any graph of x against t will not be a straight line ─ it will, in the above case, be a parabola. Thus contradiction.
Incidentally, it does not matter whether we write
x′ = Ax + Bt   or x′ = Ax – Bt since we can make B positive or negative as required by the situation. All that matters is the relative motion of the two systems irrespective of direction.    

 Note 5 There is some doubt about what a hypothetical observer would actually ‘see’ (a fortiori what his brain would tell him he is ‘seeing’). According to current physics, photons from a ‘moving’ object leave that object at different times, and ones from parts further away will take longer to impinge on the eye than others. On would not see a ‘moving’ cube ‘face on’ but as if it were slightly rotated thus allowing a little of one side to be visible. The general conclusion seems to be the general case one would see the shape of a moving object rotated but otherwise undisturbed; the colour and brightness of the object would also change because of aberration and Doppler shift. See the discussion “The Visual Appearance of Moving Objects in Rosser, Introductory Relativity pp. 104-107.

 Note 6 For example the experiments carried out by Berozzi on electrons. They decisively show that (v/c)2 flattens off dramatically for kinetic energies approaching as v approaches c, whereas, for small speeds, the predictions of Einstein coincide with those of Newtonian Mechanics.

 

 

“There is a tide in the affairs of men
               Which taken in the flood, leads on to fortune”

                                         Shakespeare, Julius Caesar

 Eventrics, a term I have coined, is the theory of events and their interactions. Up to now, I have almost entirely given my attention to the ‘micro’ end of Eventrics, that is to Ultimate Event Theory, an ‘ultimate event’ being the smallest possible event, roughly the equivalent of an atom or elementary particle.
But it is now time to turn to ‘macro-Eventrics’ and, in particular, human power politics. Any principles that underlie massive human-directed complexes of events have, on the face of it, little or nothing to do with the sort of things I have been discussing up to now ─ but that is just as true of matter-based physics when we shift from the world of the electron to the world of matter in bulk. As a disbeliever in continuity, I ought to be prepared for such a difference, but I would never have expected it to be so large. It is notoriously difficult to say exactly what this extra ingredient is, which is why reductionist theories have, in the last two hundred years or so, decisively gained the upper hand over ‘vitalist’ or ‘system’ theories. For the moment, the question of how and at what exact scale groups of causally bonded ultimate events start behaving in a qualitatively different manner from their individual components will be laid aside.

Chief features of ‘power’ event-chains

 In the last post I mentioned a few features of power politics viewed from the standpoint of Eventrics and, in particular, enunciated the basic doctrine that “it is events, not human beings that drive history”. I stressed the importance of a so-called ‘tipping point’ or ‘moment of opportunity’ in the fortunes of famous individuals. Persons become powerful, so I argued, not because they have outstanding intelligence, looks or charm ─ though clearly such things are assets ─ but because they (1) “fit the situation they find themselves in” and (2) because they seize with both hands the passing opportunity that presents itself (if it presents itself). I also advanced the notion that the recommended way to seize power and hold it is based on two, and essentially only two items, which are summed up in the codeword used by the US for the invasion of Panama : “Shock and Awe”.
Descending the stairs immediately after putting this post on the Internet, my eye was drawn to a battered second-hand book on Napoleon (Napoleon by Paul Johnson) that I remembered only vaguely (Note 1). I opened it and came across the following passage that I had marked in red in the margin :

“Victor Hugo, a child of one of Bonaparte’s generals, was later to write: Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come. It is equally true to say : No one is more fortunate than a man whose time has come. Bonaparte was thus favoured by fortune and the timing of the parabola, and he compounded his luck by the alacrity and decision with which he snatched at opportunities as they arose”.
Paul Johnson, Napoleon  

Exactement, c’est ça. Certainly, the author would seem to be wholly in agreement with the ‘First and Second Principles of Eventrics’.

I then wondered how some of the other general principles I tentatively outlined applied to Napoleon. Did he have his ‘moment of opportunity’? Did he apply “Shock and Awe” as his principal methods? In fact, yes, on both counts but first let us enquire a little more into the thesis that it is not the man who commands events but rather the events that offer the opportunity to the man. This is not quite the same thing as saying a successful person is ‘lucky’, though as a matter of fact a surprising number of very successful people do say this, and not out of modesty.

Three Dictators

If we exclude Russia as being somewhat out on its own, and thus Stalin, the three most powerful non-elected individuals in Western history are Cromwell, Napoleon and Hitler. It is worthwhile examining their backgrounds carefully. None came from a rich, well-educated, aristocratic background ─ but none of them came from a working-class background either (Note 1). Oliver Cromwell, though distantly related to Henry VIII’s all-powerful minister Thomas Cromwell, came from the ‘lower gentry’ and even for a while apparently worked his own land. He did attend Oxford for one year but made no sort of mark there. More to the point, he had absolutely no formal military training, perhaps a blessing in disguise since it forced him to improvise and innovate. As for Hitler, he was the son of an Austrian Customs Official and had at least enough education to be able to present samples of his work to the Viennese School of Architecture (which twice refused him). Bonaparte’s family were small-time impoverished Corsican gentry turned lawyers “just rich enough to own their own house and garden and employ servants” as Johnson puts it.
Coming from the lower gentry or the ‘upwardly mobile’ lower middle class can actually an advantage if you have your eye on the heights : such persons have enough of a leg up to obtain one or two useful contacts and a minimum of education but not enough to spare them the titanic effort needed if they want to seriously improve their condition.

The Young Napoleon  

Napoleon JPEGOf the three ‘dictators’ Napoleon was without a doubt the most talented in the ‘normal’ sense of the word. He had outstanding powers of concentration and application and a memory for “facts and locations” that never ceased to astonish people; he was a better mathematician than any Western ruler I can think of and such a good map-reader that he would be considered a ‘genius’ if we treated cartography on a level with, say, astronomy . At school he was not quite a prodigy ─ real prodigies rarely achieve anything in later life ─ but he was not far short of being one. Whereas the military training at the ‘Ecole Militaire, Paris, usually took two or three years, Napoleon passed all his exams in a single year and qualified as a 2nd Lieutenant at the ripe age of 16. His examiner in mathematics was the world-famous mathematician and astronomer, Laplace.
So, what would Buonaparte have been in another time and place? There have been extremely few eras in history when talent alone could win out over entrenched interests and tradition. All three of our ‘dictators’ came to power in extremely uncertain times, Cromwell during the English Civil War, Hitler during the chaotic post-war German Weimar Republic and Napoleon himself emerged from obscurity after the most famous revolution of all time. Even so, Napoleon, as a ‘provincial’ with a Corsican accent, an obscure titre de noblesse that his fellow students didn’t take seriously, and no family money, nearly missed the boat since most of the best places were already filled by the time Napoleon came to the notice of the democratic clique that ruled France from the centre of Paris. At one point he thought of offering his services to the Sultan or emigrating to India where he might well have been a rather less successful Clive ─ less successful only because France did not bother so much about India as England did. In other words in another time and place, Buonaparte would certainly have been something, but equally certainly he would not have been Napoleon.

”A Strange Combination of Circumstances” 

As countless historians have pointed out, had Napoleon been born a decade or so earlier when his native Corsica was owned by Genoa, he would not have been a French citizen at all and so would not have qualified to become a boursier (paid student) first at Brienne and later at the Ecole Militaire in Paris. The teaching seems to have been pretty good and by a second stroke of luck, the young officer shortly after receiving his commission was assigned to an artillery regiment commanded by Baron Duteil, “perhaps the most distinguished gunner in the French army” (Marshall-Cornwall, Napoleon as Military Commander). The Baron was extremely impressed by the cadet officer, who had not yet been under fire, and helped him as much as he could. And the scarcely credible slackness of a young officer’s life under the ancien régime (when there wasn’t actually a war on) meant that the young Napoleon had plenty of time to supplement his formal education with intensive personal study, not just military theory but also politics and ancient history (Note 2).
Nor is this all. After the revolution, virtually all the top officers went over to the royalist side so the fledgling republic needed all the trained soldiers it could find and was ready to promote them accordingly. Nonetheless, Napoleon very nearly lost the chance of a lifetime because he got embroiled in the struggle for Corsican Independence, changing sides more than once, until he finally opted for Revolutionary France.
Then, while inspecting the coastal defences of the South of France he had three amazing strokes of luck. (1) The General in charge of the forces near Toulon, Carteaux, was incompetent and soon to be relieved of his functions (2) Carteaux’s artillery commander, Dugommier was badly wounded and (3) Napoleon ‘happened’ to come across a certain Saliceti, an old Corsican friend of the family, now a leading politician in the Paris Convention. Saliceti arranged for the promising but still relatively inexperienced officer, scarcely out of his teens, to be put in charge of the artillery for the relief of Toulon. As Marshall-Cornwall says, “It was a strange combination of circumstances”.

First Moment of Opportunity : Awe

Toulon was the first and most important ‘tipping point’ in Napoleon’s career and though it was ‘Fortune’ that gave him the golden opportunity, it was Napoleon who seized it firmly with both hands and never let it go.
The siege of Toulon, more correctly the attack on the forts and batteries surrounding Toulon, was an impeccably executed manoeuvre conducted largely according to plans drawn up by Napoleon himself and enthusiastically endorsed by the new commander, du Teil, the brother of Napoleon’s artillery mentor (another amazing stroke of luck). Napoleon himself took part in the final assault on the key position, Fort Mulgrave, and was wounded by a bayonet. His commander du Teil sent a glowing report to the War Minister

Words fail me to describe Buonaparte’s merits. He has great knowledge and as much intelligence and courage, and that is only a faint outline of the qualities of this rare officer.”                                          Quoted, Marshall-Cornwall

One can even perhaps detect a certain note of respect for a gallant enemy in a contemporary English newspaper’s mention of Buonaparte by name (unearthed by Trevelyan) ─ “Lieutenant Buonaparte has been killed in one of the recent encounters before Toulon”.
Toulon was, militarily speaking, an awesome performance and at the age of 24 the young artillery officer found himself promoted to général de brigade ( Brigadier) skipping all the intermediary ranks including Colonel. This could surely never have happened in any national army in the world except perhaps for an American during the American War of Independence.
Shortly before the successful conclusion of the siege, Napoleon was brought to the notice of a ‘political commissar’ ─ one feels oneself already in the 20th century ─ sent by the Paris Convention to scout around for promising talent, but doubtless also to check on people’s political correctness. The person in question was a Royalist officer turned Republican, Paul Barras. This remarkable man was to play a key role in Napoleon’s life since he later downloaded onto him an aging mistress, Josephine de Beauharnais, and, more important still, provided Napoleon with his first chance to show his political mettle. It is well to remember that it was Barras that spotted Napoleon and not the reverse, and that Napoleon came to his notice not through social contacts but by his actions. Although Barras was an opportunist who wanted to use Napoleon for his own purposes, the other senior figures, the two du Teils and Napoleon’s new superior General Dugommier, all war-hardened veterans, seem to have been literally spell-bound by the young officer, somewhat as Beauregard was spell-bound by Jeanne d’Arc.

Second Moment of Opportunity : Shock 

I mentioned in the last post that the recipe for power is Shock & Awe (not necessarily in that order). Occasionally, figures achieve eminence without the first element but they are almost always religious or artistic figures, not political or military ones. Machiavelli is quite adamant about the importance of Shock and advises the would-be usurper to get this part over with as quickly and decisively as possible :

“If you take control of a state, you should make a list of all the crimes you have to commit and do them all at once. He who acts otherwise, either out of squeamishness or out of bad judgment, has to hold a bloody knife in his hand all the time. (…) Do all the harm you must at one and the same time, that way the full extent of it will be noticed, and it will give least offence.”

                                Machiavelli, The Prince ch. VIII (edited and translated David Wootton) 

        We do not know at what point Napoleon decided he wanted not only military but political power as well. Actually, he did not have a lot of choice. While the chaotic aftermath of the French Revolution gave able young officers like Napoleon their chance, it also made them extremely vulnerable to the vicissitudes of party politics. After such a brilliant start Napoleon was briefly imprisoned when the Jacobins were guillotined since he had been on good terms with the younger Robespierre. The ever ready Corsican Saliceti came to his aid, arguing that France needed officers like Napoleon ─ but from then on he was regarded by the authorities with some distrust, though returned to his duties.
After the collapse of the first attempt to invade Italy (with plans partly drawn up by Napoleon himself), Napoleon must have felt that his promising career had been nipped in the bud. There he was, poor, regarded with some suspicion at Paris and despite his striking looks, gauche and unsuccessful with women.
But Barras was now the leading figure of the Directory. This man, even more than Napoleon in a sense, was an absolute master of what I call Eventrics since, incredibly, while starting off as a Royalist officer, he went through all the vicissitudes of the Revolution unscathed, changing sides exactly at the right time and like a political Soros always backing the winner.
In 1795 Napoleon was called to the bureau topographique (sort of Planning Office) in Paris. The political situation was extremely serious : the poorer population of Paris, feeling that the revolution had been snatched out of their hands by a lot of devious politicians and currency speculators, were getting ready for the third stage of the Revolution. Barras was granted full powers to restore order while the other members of the new government barricaded themselves in the Tuileries.
Napoleon’s job was to quell the revolt. According to Johnson, on 13 vendémiaire (5 October) about 30,000 malcontents, many of them armed, rampaged through the centre of Paris. This sounds like an enormous number of people given the smaller populations at the time and much of Paris was an ideal battleground for urban guerrilla ─ as parts of it remained right up to the ‘student revolution’ of May 1968.
It is not clear whether Buonaparte seized this second opportunity to distinguish himself because of ambition, or because of conviction (most likely both). Politically, apart from being a Buonapartist, Napoleon was what we would today consider ‘Centre-Left’. He was sincere in his dislike of the ancien régime, opposed to the power of the Catholic Church, believed everyone should be equal before the law and was an active patron of the arts and sciences. But, like all other ‘middle-class’ people at the time, he would have been horrified by the idea of giving power to ‘the mob’ (Note 3).
Buonaparte applied the Machiavellian principles to the letter. He realized that in hand-to-hand fighting the rebels, even if poorly armed, would probably get the upper hand by sheer weight of numbers. His plan, then, was to lure the rioters away from the lethal alleyways of much of central Paris into an open space, of which there were not so many then, where he could unleash his artillery on them. Fortunately for him, the Tuileries, siege of the government and target of the populace’s anger, did have some open space around it.
Johnson goes so far as to suggest that Napoleon deliberately chose ‘grapeshot’ rather than balls or shells because “it scattered over a wide area, tending to produce a lot of blood” but maiming rather than killing its victims. If this is the case, Buonaparte possibly did the ‘right thing’ ─ or so at any rate Machiavelli would have said ─ since it was more politically expedient (and even more humane) to frighten once and for all than to kill. A heavy initial death toll after a massed charge would have enraged the assailants and made them even more desperate, thus more dangerous. As it was, the operation went off as successfully as the raising of the siege of Toulon : the mob recoiled, bloodied and terrified out of their wits by the noise of the big guns at point-blank range, and never got together in such numbers again until the July Revolution of 1830 by which time Napoleon was long dead.

A classic case 

Napoleon’s career is almost too pat as a study in Eventrics power politics. First, an ideal situation to step into, two ‘moments of opportunity’, one military and one political, a steady ascent to absolute power, finally decline due to overconfidence and unnecessary risk-taking (invasion of Russia). When the tide of events left him stranded, his dash and mastery changed to bluster and obstinacy. Napoleon could easily have got a better deal for himself, and certainly for France, if he had accepted the Allied offers of returning France to its 1799 or 1792 frontiers instead of fighting on against Allied forces that outnumbered him eight or ten to one. And most historians think that, even if he had won the Battle of Waterloo after his return from Elba (which he nearly did), he could never have remained in power. Nothing particularly surprising here from the point of view of ‘Eventrics’, simply the trap of believing yourself to command events when they always, at the end of the day, control you.
Byron apparently thought Napoleon should have died fighting and certainly that would have been better for his posthumous image. Hitler committed suicide on the advice of Goebbels in order precisely to “maintain the Fuhrer legend” which was judged to be more important than the man himself.     SH 24/3/14

 

Note 1 Surprisingly, Thomas Cromwell, Henry VIII’s (for a while) all-powerful minister, was the son of a Putney blacksmith. But Thomas Cromwell’s position was always precarious and he did not last long. Henry VIII put into practice Machiavelli’s golden rule of getting someone to do the dirty work and, then, when his services were no longer needed, getting rid of him, thus earning the gratitude of the common people.
Machiavelli praises Cesare Borgia for putting Remiro d’Orco, “a man both cruel and efficient” in charge of the Romagna.
“D’Orco in short order established peace and unity and acquired immense authority. At that point the duke decided such unchecked power as no longer necessary, for he feared people might come to hate it. (…) In order to purge the ill-will of the people and win them completely over to him, he [Cesare Borgia] wanted to make it clear that, if there had been any cruelty, he was not responsible for it and that his hard-hearted minister was to blame. One morning, in the town square of Cesena, he had Remiro d’Orco’s corpse laid out in two pieces, with a chopping board and a bloody knife beside it. This ferocious sight made the people of the Romagna simultaneously happy and dumbfounded.”
Machiavelli,  The Prince ch. 7 translated Wootton

 Note 2 “Apart from his service duties, Buonaparte plunged into an intensive course of self-education, devouring in particular books on military and political history. In order to train     his memory, he wrote out a preface for every book he read, and these voluminous digests still survive; they cover a wide range of subjects…”          Marshall-Cornwall, Napoleon as Military Commander p. 18

 Note 3 Today, at a safe distance of two centuries, one tends to feel sympathetic to the rioters and, as a socialist and a romantic, I used at one time to think that “the people” were automatically in the right especially when attacked by the military. However, I hardly think much good would have come of this popular uprising : there would just have been more pointless bloodshed and general chaos.
In effect, the ‘Third Revolution’ was postponed until the 1871 Paris Commune. In this case grape-shot was not enough : some 22,000 people, mainly civilians, were killed in a single week, the notorious ‘semaine de sang’ 21-28 May 1871.                              

Power ─ what is power? In physics it is the rate of ‘doing Work’ but this meaning has little or no connection to ‘power’ in the political or social sense.
Power is the capacity to constrain other people to do your bidding whether or not they wish to do so. This sounds pretty negative and indeed power has had a bad sense ever since the Romantics from whom we have never really recovered. Hobbes spent a good deal of his life trying to persuade the ‘powers that be’ of his time, i.e. King and/or Parliament, to make themselves absolute ─ even though he himself was exactly the sort of freewheeling and freethinking individual no absolute ruler would want to have as a citizen. But Hobbes lived through the Civil War which the Romantics didn’t. Prior to the nineteenth century most people of all classes were more afraid of the breakdown or absence of power (‘chaos’, ‘anarchy’) than of ‘abuse of power’: indeed they would find modern attitudes not only misguided but scarcely comprehensible.
If you wish to live in society, there has to be some way of constraining people since otherwise everyone pulls in different directions and nothing gets done. If you don’t believe me, go and spend a few weeks or even days in a situation where no one has power. I have lived in ‘communities’ and they are intolerable for this very reason. What usually happens is that someone soon steps into the power vacuum and he (less often she) is the person who shouts loudest, pushes hardest, is the most unscrupulous and generally the most hateful ─ though sometimes also the most efficient. In more traditional communities it is not so much the more assertive as the ‘older and wiser’ who wield the power, the obvious example being the Quakers. This sounds a lot better but in my experience it isn’t that much of an improvement. People like the Quakers who forego the use of physical force tend to be highly manipulative ─ they have to be ─  and it would be quite wrong to believe that a power structure in the Quakers or the Amish does not exist for it certainly does. In fact no society can exist for more than a month without a power structure, i.e. without someone (whether one or many) holding power.

Necessity of power
So, my thesis is the unoriginal one that some form of power invested in specific  human beings (whether initially elected or not) is inevitable and not necessarily a bad thing. Lord Acton was being extremely silly when he made the endlessly repeated statement “All power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely” with the implication is that it is better to keep away from power altogether. Although I don’t know much about Lord Acton’s life, I can be pretty sure that he didn’t know what it was like to be powerless. One could just as well say, “All lack of power corrupts, absolute powerlessness corrupts absolutely”. It is lack of physical or financial muscle that makes people devious, treacherous, deceitful : one more or less has to be like this to survive.
And it is simply not true that ‘absolute power corrupts absolutely’. You can’t get much nearer to absolute power than the position of the Roman Emperor. But Rome produced one or two quite good Emperors, e.g. Augustus himself and Hadrian, also one entirely admirable, indeed saintlike (though woefully ineffective) one, Marcus Aurelius. President Obama has currently more power in his hands than anyone who has ever existed, at least in the  military sense, and although not everyone agrees with his policies not even his enemies have accused him of being corrupt or corrupted by power.

Liberty to Order
One alarming and unexpected aspect of the dynamics of power is that when an existing power structure is overthrown, the ‘order’ that emerges from the usually brief period of chaos is a good deal more restrictive than what preceded it, witness the Commonwealth under Cromwell, Russia under Stalin &c. &c. In the ‘mini-revolution’ of Paris in May 1968, I and one or two others, watched open-mouthed, hardly believing what we were witnessing,  as a single individual, in whom at one stage most of us had full confidence, concentrated all the power of an occupied University faculty into his hands exactly like Robespierre or Stalin. And he did it without striking a blow.
Actually, such a dénouement is virtually inevitable ─ or at any rate  the danger of such a development will always be there. Immediately after a revolution there is usually a counter-attack by the ousted elite, so the revolutionaries find themselves with their backs to the wall. In such a situation, it is survival that counts, not liberty ─ because if you, or the social order you represent, don’t survive, then there won’t be any more liberty either, it will just be ancien régime all over again, only worse. So the revolutionaries enact repressive legislation to protect themselves, legislation which is rarely repealed when things eventually calm down.

Power and Eventrics
Why am I writing a post about power on this site? Because, as a friend has just this very day reminded me, I must beware of giving the impression that ‘Eventrics’, the theory of events and their interactions, only deals with  invisible ‘ultimate events’, equally invisible ‘Event Capsules’ and generally is about as irrelevant to everyday life as nuclear physics. Ultimate Event Theory is the microscopic branch of Eventrics but the theory applies right across the board and it may be that its strength will be in the domain of social thinking and power politics. Just as the physics of matter in bulk is very different from the physics of quarks and electrons, that part of Eventrics that deals with macro-events, i.e. with massive repeating bundles of ultimate events that behave as if they were independent entities, has on the face of it little in common with micro-eventrics (though presumably ultimately grounded in it).

So what has the Theory of Events and their Interactions to say about power? Well, firstly that it is events and their internal dynamism that drive history, not physical forces or even persons. Mechanics, electro-magnetism and so on are completely irrelevant to human power politics and indeed up to a point the less science you know the more successful you are likely to be  as an administrator  or politician. Biology is a little more relevant than physics because of the emphasis on struggle but it is all far too crude and ridiculously reductionist to apply directly to human societies. Human individuals certainly do not strive to acquire power in order to push their genes around more extensively : Casanova pushed his around more effectively than Hitler, Mussolini and Cromwell combined. And the widespread introduction of birth-control in Western societies demonstrates that modern human beings are certainly not under the thumb of their ‘selfish genes’ (as even Dawkins belatedly admits). Nor is this the only example. Just as virtue really is its own reward, at least sometimes, so apparently is the pursuit of power, and indeed at the end of the day so are most things.

Irrelevance of Contemporary Science to Power Politics
More fashionable contemporary ‘sciences’ such as complexity theory do occasionally have something of interest to say about human affairs but their proponents have yet to make any predictions of import that have come true as far as I know. The financial crash of 2008, only anticipated by a handful of actual investors and traders such as Nessim Taleb and Soros (the former even pinpointed where the bubble would start, Fanny Mac and Fanny Mae), makes a mockery of the application of mathematics to economics and indeed of economics in toto as an exact science.
The reason for official science’s impotence when addressing human affairs is very  easy to explain :  almost all living scientists are employed either by universities or by the State. That is, they have never fought it out in the cut-throat world of business nor even, with one or two exceptions, dirtied their hands with investment, have never been under fire on a battlefield or even played poker for money. But it is in business, warfare and gambling that you can detect the ‘laws’ of power inasmuch as there are any, i.e. how to acquire power when you don’t have it and how to keep it when you do. Hitler was an auto-didact dismissed as a buffoon by the Eton and Oxbridge brigade that staffed the Foreign Affairs Department then as now : but he ran rings around them because he had learned his power politics strategy at the bottom, in the hard school of Austrian YMCA Hostels and German beer-halls.

Qualitative ‘Laws of Power’
There are most likely no specific laws of power in the sense that there are ‘laws of motion’ but there are certain recurrent features well worth mentioning. They are ‘qualitative’ rather than ‘quantitative’ but this is as it should be. It is stupid to put numbers on things like fashions and revolutions because it is not the specifics that matter, only the general trend. Indeed, the person who is obsessed with figures is likely to miss the general trend because the actual shapes and sizes don’t look familiar. Rutherford’s much quoted remark that “Qualitative is just poor quantitative” may have its uses in his domain (nuclear physics), but in human affairs it is more a matter of “quantitative is lazy or incompetent qualitative”.

Tipping Points and Momentum
So what noticeable trends are there? One very general feature, which sticks out a mile, is the ‘tipping point’ or ‘critical mass’.  Malcolm Gladwell, a non-scientist and a qualitative rather than quantitative thinker, wrote a justly praised bestseller called The Tipping Point, which demonstrates his sound understanding of the mechanisms at work. A movement, fashion, revolution &c. must seemingly attain a certain point : if it does not attain it, the movement will fail, fade away. If it does attain this point, the movement takes off and it does not take off in a ‘linear’ fashion but in a runaway ‘exponential’ fashion, at least for a while. Anyone who has lived through a period of severe social unrest or revolution knows what I am talking about. My own experience is based on the May 1968 ‘Student Revolution’ in Paris. But much the same goes for a new style in clothes or shoes : indeed fashions have something alarming precisely because they demonstrate power, sudden, naked power which sweeps aside all opposition. The fashion industry is in its way as frightening as the armaments industry and for the same reasons.
OK. There is a ‘tipping point’ (generally only one) and, following it, a consequent sudden burst of momentum : these are the first two items worth signalling. And these two features seem to have very little to do with particular individuals. It is the events themselves that do the work : the events pull the people along, not the reverse. Companies that found they had launched a trend overnight ─ Gladwell cites the Hush Puppies craze ─ were often the first to be surprised by their own success. As for political movements, I know for a fact, since I was part of the milieu, that the French left-wing intelligentsia was staggered out of its wits when a few scuffles in the Sorbonne for some reason turned almost overnight into the longest general strike ever known in a modern industrialized country.

Key Individuals
This general point (that it is not human beings that direct history) needs some qualification, however. There are indeed individuals who unleash a vast movement by a single act but this happens much less often than historians pretend, and usually the result is not at all what was intended. Princeps, the high-school boy who shot the Archduke at Sarajevo and precipitated WWI did have a political agenda of a kind but he neither wished nor intended to cause a European war.
And there are indeed also individuals who mark history in a big way and mean to do so, but they achieve their aims more often than not by ‘going with events’  rather than by attempting to instigate series of events themselves or, worse still, deluding themselves that they are in complete control of the course of events. In other words, they are people who have an instinctive sense of the underlying principles of Eventrics and know how to use these forces to their personal advantage. And the word ‘instinctive’, hated by all rationalists and scientists, is the key word here. Cromwell, a man who rose from being an obscure country squire to become Lord Protector is supposed to have enunciated the astounding dictum, “No man rises so high as he who does not know where he is going.” Hitler, an even more striking case of a ‘man from nowhere’, compared himself at one point to a ‘sleepwalker’ ─ “I go to my goal with the precision and assurance of a sleepwalker”.
To recap. We already have a few features to look out for. (1) tipping point; (2) sudden, vertiginous take-off when there is a take-off; (3) lack of anyone instigating or controlling the movement but (4) certain individuals who achieve what seems to be impossible by simply ‘moving with the events’.

Machiavelli
Today we tend to trace the study of power back to Machiavelli and certainly it would be foolish to downplay his importance. Nonetheless, the historical situation in which Machiavelli worked and thought, Quattrocento Italy, is completely different from the modern world, at any rate what we call the ‘advanced’ modern world. Would-be rulers in Machiavelli’s time acquired power either by being promoted by some clique or by direct annexation and murder. But no 20th century head of an important state acquired power by a coup d’etat : he or she  generally acquired it by the ballot box — and incredibly this even applies to Hitler who obtained the votes of a third of the German population. And though Machiavelli does have some useful things to say about the importance of getting the common people on your side, he has nothing to say about the power of political oratory and the use of symbolism.
Possibly, the sort of brazenness that Machiavelli advocates actually did work in the Italian Quattrocento world of small city-states and condottieri. VBut even then it would certainly not have worked in any of the larger states. No one who aims at  big power admits duplicity or advocates its use; if you are ambitious, the first person you usually have to convince is yourself and this is no easy task. You have to carry out a sort of self-cheat whereby you simultaneously believe you really are acting for the general good while simultaneously  pursuing a ruthlessly egotistical policy. This is not quite hypocrisy (though perilously close to it): it is rather the Method actor temporarily ‘living the role’ ─ and running the risk of getting caught in his own noose. Indeed it is because Machiavelli has a sort of  basic honesty, and hence integrity, that no clear-sighted upstart ruler would want to give such a man high office ─ he would either be utterly useless or a serious danger because too formidable. And, interestingly, the Medicis did not employ Machiavelli although he was certainly angling to be taken on by them.

The Two Ways to Power
There seem to be two ways to achieve power which are interestingly summed up in the codeword employed by the greatest military power of all time, America, when it invaded Panama : Shock and Awe. (I think that was the codeword but if not it is very apposite.)
Shock and awe are distinct and even to some extent contradictory. By ‘shock’ we should understand showing the enemy, or anyone in fact, that you have the means to do a lot of damage and, crucially, that you are prepared to go the whole way if you have to. It can actually save lives if you make an initial almighty show of force ─ exactly what the US Army did in Panama ─ since the opposition will most likely cave in at once without risking a battle. (This doesn’t always work, however : the bombing raids on civilian targets of both the English and the Germans during WWII seem to have stiffened opposition rather than weakened it.)
Awe has a religious rather than a military sense though the great commanders of the ancient world, Alexander, Caesar, Hannibal, had the sort of aura we associate more with religious leaders. Time and again isolated figures with what we vaguely, but not inaccurately, call ‘charisma’ have suddenly attained enormous power and actually changed the course of history : the obvious example being Joan of Arc. Hitler, having failed to ‘shock’ the country, or even Munich, by holding a revolver to the Governor of Bavaria (literally) and rampaging around the streets with a handful of toughs, was sharp enough to realize that he must turn to awe instead, using his formidable gifts of oratory to obtain power via  the despised ballot-box. Mahomet did fight but no one doubts that it was his prophetic rather than strictly military abilities that returned him against all odds to Mecca.

The Paradox of Christ
What of Christ? It seems clear that there were at the time in Palestine several movements that wished to rid the country of the Romans (even though they were by the standards of the time quite tolerant masters) and to revive the splendours of the House of David. There is some hesitation and a  certain ambivalence in Christ’s answer under interrogation which suggests he had not entirely made up his mind on the crux of the matter, i.e. whether he did or did not intend to establish himself as ‘King of the Jews’. He did not deny the attribution but qualified it by adding “My kingdom is not of this world.” This is a clever answer to give since it was only Christ’s political pretensions that concerned the Romans, represented here by  Pontius Pilate. It is not an entirely satisfactory answer, however. If a ‘kingdom’ is entirely of, or in, ‘another world’, one might justifiably say, “What’s the use of it, then?” Christianity has in fact changed the everyday here-and-now world enormously, in some ways for the better, in some ways not. And Pontius Pilate’s blunt refusal to remove the inscription, “Jesus of Nazareth, the King of the Jews” suggests that Pilate thought the Jews could have done a lot worse than have such a man as ‘king’.
It seems probable that some of Christ’s followers, including one disciple, wanted to nudge Christ into taking up a more openly political stance which, subsequently, it would  have been difficult to draw back from. According to this interpretation, Judas did not betray Christ for money or protection : he tried to bring about an open conflict ─ and he very nearly succeeded since Peter drew his sword and struck off the servant of the High Priest’s ear in the Gethsemane stand-off. But Christ seemingly had by now (after a final moment of intercession and prayer) decided to stick entirely to ‘awe’ as a means of combat with the forces of evil (in which he clearly believed). In a sense, Christ was not so much a victim as a resolute and exceedingly skilful strategist. No one expected him to give in and actually be put to death as a common felon, and for a moment Christ himself seems to have been hoping for a miracle hence the cry “Why, oh why hast Thou forsaken me?” (a quotation from Isaiah incidentally). It has been suggested by certain commentators  that Christ was using ‘goodness’ and the respect and awe it inspires to actually take the ‘Evil One’ by surprise and, as it were, wrong-foot him. Seemingly, there are suggestions of this ‘unorthodox way of combatting evil’ in the writings of the Old Testament prophets which Christ knew off by heart, of course.
And, incredibly, the stratagem worked since Christ’s small band of followers rallied and went from strength to strength whereas the other Jewish would-be Messiahs of the time who really did take up arms against the Romans perished completely ─ and provoked the greatest disaster in Jewish history, the complete destruction of the Temple and the diaspora.
Certainly there are moments when ‘awe’ without shock works. Saint  Francis, Fox, the founder of the Quakers, Gandhi and Martin Luther King have all used the ‘awe’ that a certain kind of disinterested goodness inspires to excellent effect. It is, however, a perilous strategy since you have to be prepared to ‘go the whole way’ if necessary, i.e. to die, and the public is not likely to be easily fooled on this point.

“Be as cunning as serpents and as innocent as doves”
This has taken us some way from the original subject but my advisor told me I ought to ramble more if I want to get more readers.
The case of Christ is a very interesting case viewed from the standpoint of Eventrics. But before examining it in more detail, may I make it clear that by analysing the behaviour of figures such as Christ or Mahomet in terms of event strategy, no offence to religious people is intended. Eventrics, like all sciences is ethically neutral : it merely  studies, or purports to study what goes on. But as a matter of fact, most great religious leaders had a pretty good grasp of day to day tactics as well. Charisma by itself is not enough, and Christ himself said, “Be as cunning as serpents and as innocent as doves”.
The trouble with the ‘innocent’ is that they are usually completely ineffective, either because they don’t understand Realpolitik or consider it beneath them. But there is actually not a lot of point in being ‘good’ if you don’t actually do any good ─ at any rate from society’s point of view. And there is a way of getting things done which is identical whether you are good or bad. Nor need the ‘good’ person feel himself or herself to be as much at a disadvantage as he usually does. Bad people themselves have weak points : they tend to assume everyone else is as selfish and unscrupulous as they themselves are and in consequence make catastrophic errors of judgement. The really dangerous bad person is the one who understands ordinary people’s wish to be ‘good’, at least occasionally, ‘good’ in the sense of unselfish, ready to devote oneself to a higher cause and so on. Hitler was able to simultaneously play on people’s baser instincts but also on their better instincts, their desire not only to be of service to their country but to sacrifice themselves for it (Note 1).

The paradox of Christ
Christ at the zenith of hi8s mission was swept along by what seemed a well-nigh irresistible tide of events fanned by the growing irritation with Roman rule, the preachings of holy men like John the Baptist, widespread  expectations of a sudden miraculous cataclysm that would wind up history and bring about the Jewish Golden Age, and so on and so forth. Christ was borne along by this current : it took him into the lion’s den, Jerusalem itself, where he was acclaimed by an adoring multitude.
So far, so good. The tide was strong but not quite strong enough, or so Christ judged. The most difficult thing for someone who has a string of successes behind him is to pull out at the right moment, and very few people are capable of doing this since the power of the event-train not only exerts itself on spectators but above all on the protagonist himself. He or she gets caught in his own noose, which only proves the basic law of Eventrics that it is events that drive history not the person who directs them, or thinks he does. Over and above any moral priority which puts pacifism higher than combat, or a desire to broaden his message to reach out to the Gentiles, on the strictly tactical level Christ seemingly judged that the Jewish resistance movement was not strong enough to carry the day against the combined force of the official priesthood and Rome. So he decided to combat in a different way ─ by apparently giving in. He withdrew deliberately and voluntarily from the onward surge of events and, miraculously, this unexpected strategy worked (but only posthumously).
Napoleon made a fatal mistake when he invaded Russia, as did Hitler, and both for basically the same reasons (though the case of Hitler is more problematical) : they had swum along with a tide of events that took them to the pinnacle of worldly power but were unable, or unwilling, to see that the moment had come to pull out. In a roughly similar situation, Bismarck, a far less charismatic leader than either Napoleon or Hitler, proved he was a far better practitioner of Eventrics. Having easily overwhelmed Denmark and crushed Austria, Bismarck halted, made a very moderate peace settlement with Austria, indeed an absurdly generous one, because he had the wit to realize he required at least the future neutrality and non-intervention of Austria for his larger aims of creating a united Germany under Prussian leadership and prosecuting a successful war with France. As H.A.L. Fisher writes, “There is no more certain test of statesmanship than the capacity to resist the political intoxication of victory.”
It is the same thing with gambling. Despite all the tut-tutting of scientists and statisticians who never risk anything and know nothing about the strange twists and turns of human events, I am entirely convinced that there really is such a thing as a ‘winning streak’, since successive events can and do reinforce each other ─ indeed this is one of the most important basic assumptions of Eventrics. What makes gamblers lose is not that they believe in such chimeras as ‘runs’ or ‘winning streaks’ : they lose because they do not judge when it is the right moment to leave the table, or if they do judge rightly do not have the strength of character to act on this belief. They are caught up by the events and taken along with them, and thus become helpless victims of events. There is I believe a Chinese expression about ‘riding’ events and this is the correct metaphor. A skilful rider gives the horse its head but doesn’t let it bolt ─ and if it shows an irresistible inclination to do so,  he jumps off smartly.
This gives us the double strategy of the practitioner of Eventrics : go with the tide of events when it suits you and leave it abruptly when, or better still just before, it turns against you. The ‘trend’ is certainly not “always your friend” as the Wall Street catchphrase goes. The successful investor is the person who detects a rising tide a little bit earlier than other people, goes with it, and then pulls out just before the wave peaks. Timing is everything.     SH

 

Note 1  Curiously, at least in contemporary Western society, there is not only very little desire to be ‘good’, but even to appear to be good. Bankers and industrialists in the past presented themselves to the public as benefactors, and some of them actually were (once they had made their pile): this is a million miles from the insolent cocksureness of “Greed is good”. We have thus an unprecedented situation. People who not only lack all idealism but scorn it are very difficult to manipulate because it is not clear what emotional buttons to push. Today Hitler would never get anywhere at all, not just because his racial theories don’t really hold water but, more significantly, because most people would just laugh at all this high-sounding talk about the “fatherland” and “serving your country”. This clearly is a good thing (that Hitler wouldn’t get anywhere today), but one wonders whether a rolling human cannon, a lynch mob looking for someone to lynch (anyone will do) may not turn out to be an even greater danger. In terms of Eventrics, we now have large numbers of people literally “at the mercy of events” in the sense that there are today no ringleaders, no people calling the shots, no conductors of orchestras, only a few cheerleaders making a lot of noise on the sidelines. The resulting human mass ceases to be composed of individuals and event dynamics takes over, for good or ill. The charismatic power figure has himself become outdated, irrelevant : it is Facebook and Google that control, or rather represent, the future of humanity but who controls Facebook and Google?